Middle East War Threatens 45 Million With Hunger as Hormuz Blockade Ruptures Global Food Supply

The UN World Food Programme warned that if the Middle East conflict continues through June with oil prices above $100 a barrel, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger — swelling the global total to 364 million and marking an all-time record.

The projection, released March 17, traces a direct transmission mechanism from the Strait of Hormuz closure to systemic Food Security collapse. Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, tanker traffic through the strait — which normally carries 20% of global oil and roughly one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade — has dropped 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside to avoid risk, according to crisis tracking data.

The blockade hits at the worst possible moment. Spring planting season across the Northern Hemisphere coincides with fertilizer supply disruption from a region that accounts for 49% of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia exports, per UN Trade and Development. That confluence creates what one analyst called a “cost shock on every dimension simultaneously” — energy, inputs, shipping, and currency depreciation — for farmers already operating on thin margins.

Fertilizer Shock Multiplies Food Inflation

Middle East urea prices closed above $590 per tonne on March 5, up $90 (19%) from the prior week, while US Gulf DAP prices hit $655 per tonne, up $30 (5%), according to S&P Global. Urea prices have surged as much as 35% to three-year highs as buyers scramble for alternative supply, World Fertilizer reported. Iran’s production capacity — cut to near zero by the conflict — represents approximately 16 million tonnes annually that must now be sourced elsewhere or forgone entirely.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces acute vulnerability — over 90% of fertilizer consumed there is imported, mostly from outside the continent, according to CNBC, citing University of Texas research. WFP analysis projects West and Central Africa will see 10.4 million people pushed into acute food insecurity (a 21% increase), while East and Southern Africa faces 17.7 million additional people at risk (a 17.7% increase). Asia, despite larger absolute populations, shows a 24% increase — 9.1 million people — reflecting the region’s 80% dependence on oil imports through Hormuz.

Shipping Costs Compound Crisis

WFP’s own operational costs have risen 18% since the conflict began, per agency statements. That increase arrives as the organization faces a 40% funding cut from last year, creating a double squeeze on humanitarian capacity. The agency now requires $200 million over the next three months just to maintain Middle East operations, UN News reported.

Gaza illustrates the immediate impact. Flour prices jumped 270% following border closures on February 28, forcing WFP to consider reducing rations from 100% of individual needs to just 25%, per UN News. Lebanon has seen nearly 30,000 displaced so far, a figure expected to climb substantially. The Gulf states themselves — despite oil wealth — import roughly 70% of food through Hormuz due to arid climate, creating circular dependency on the very corridor now disrupted.

Macro Transmission: Currency Pressure Amplifies Hunger

Brent crude rose from around $70 to over $110 per barrel between late February and early March, creating inflationary pressure that hits Emerging Markets through multiple channels simultaneously. Countries with weak currencies face rising import costs for energy, fertilizer, and food — all dollar-denominated — while their purchasing power declines, TIME reported.

“A farmer in Thailand who is 90% import-dependent, buying urea that’s made from gas, shipped through Hormuz, and priced in dollars that are strengthening because of geopolitical risk, faces a cost shock on every dimension simultaneously,” Raj Patel, research professor at the University of Texas, told CNBC.

The International Food Policy Research Institute warned that “higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels in many countries,” CNBC reported. Roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade could be affected if disruptions persist, the institute noted.

Baseline Fragility Meets New Shock

The 45-million projection assumes oil above $100 through June — a scenario that appeared unlikely before February 28 but now represents the base case absent a ceasefire. The current baseline of 319 million people facing acute food insecurity already represented near-record peacetime levels, making the system particularly vulnerable to additional shocks.

Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security and nutrition analysis, called the moment “seminal” in global supply chain history, with impacts spanning economy, food security, and humanitarian response capacity. The agency has begun pre-positioning supplies where possible, but funding constraints limit options.

Carl Skau, WFP’s deputy executive director, framed the stakes clearly: “If the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises. This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” he told Al-Monitor.

The warning carries particular weight because it isolates a single variable — conflict duration — as the determining factor for whether 45 million people tip into acute hunger. With spring planting underway and fertilizer procurement decisions being made now, the window for preventing the WFP’s worst-case scenario is measured in weeks, not months. Every day the strait remains disrupted locks in higher input costs for the 2026 growing season, translating directly to reduced yields and elevated food prices through year-end. The humanitarian system, already operating at 60% of last year’s funding capacity, faces a crisis that compounds existing fragility rather than creating an entirely new one — making the 364-million total not just a record, but a threshold beyond which current response infrastructure may prove structurally insufficient.