UK Convenes 40-Nation Coalition as Trump Abandons Hormuz Security

Britain convened an unprecedented 40-nation coalition on April 2 to coordinate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump explicitly refused American responsibility for securing the waterway, telling oil-dependent nations to “grab it and cherish it” in a televised address that upended seven decades of maritime security guarantees.

The crisis has paralysed 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, according to International Energy Agency data. Daily tanker transits through the strait collapsed from 150 vessels to between 10 and 20 since Iran effectively closed the chokepoint on February 28 following US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Brent crude spiked to $126 per barrel at its March 8 peak—a 40% surge from pre-war levels of $65—and remains above $100 as of April 5.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the virtual conference that “Iran hijacked an international shipping route to hold the global economy hostage,” per Al Jazeera reporting. But the coalition explicitly ruled out military deployment until a ceasefire is reached, leaving European leaders in the untenable position of coordinating non-military diplomatic measures while Trump signals the US may withdraw from traditional freedom-of-navigation commitments altogether.

The Transatlantic Fracture

Trump’s position represents the most explicit rejection of American maritime guarantees since World War II. “They can do it easily,” he said of allied nations securing their own energy supplies, according to Fortune. The statement came days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the US would “gradually take control” of the strait—contradictory messaging that has left European capitals uncertain whether Washington intends to lead, follow, or withdraw entirely.

Germany and France have been unambiguous in their refusal to deploy forces unilaterally. “This is not our war, we have not started it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated, while French President Emmanuel Macron declared that “France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context,” per NBC News. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed the sentiment: “We will not be drawn into the wider war.”

The coalition’s diplomatic focus reflects Europe’s fiscal and operational constraints. European gas prices have surged 70% since late February, while jet fuel averaged $195 per barrel last week—double the prior year—straining airline operations and industrial production, per The Hill. Yet even as energy costs soar, European defense budgets remain stretched after a 12.6% spending increase in 2025 brought aggregate outlays to a record €106 billion.

China Exploits the Vacuum

While Western allies negotiate coalition structures, China has moved decisively to secure its own energy flows. Beijing receives 40-45% of its crude oil via the strait, and Iranian authorities have allowed Chinese-flagged vessels—and only Chinese-flagged vessels—limited passage in exchange for undisclosed payments, according to Christian Science Monitor reporting. The first confirmed transaction saw the container ship Newvoyager pay Iranian authorities for safe passage in early March.

Iran has since blocked two Chinese container ships and restricts transits to “Iran-destined” cargo—household goods, cars, pharmaceuticals—creating a selective blockade that advantages Beijing’s bilateral negotiations while punishing Western commercial shipping. China’s strategic petroleum reserve, estimated at one billion barrels, provides Beijing breathing room to negotiate favorable terms while European and Asian importers scramble for alternative supply routes.

The selective enforcement has exposed the limits of multilateral coordination. Analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that 84% of Gulf oil exports are destined for Asian markets, meaning the crisis disproportionately affects China, Japan, South Korea, and India—yet only China has secured guaranteed passage through direct negotiation with Tehran.

Defense Spending Recalibration

The Hormuz crisis has accelerated European rearmament trajectories already set in motion by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO allies committed at their June 2025 Hague Summit to raise Defense Spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the longstanding 2% target. Germany has led the surge, increasing outlays 18% in 2025 on top of a 23% rise in 2024, with projections reaching €162 billion (3.5% of GDP) by 2029, according to European Parliament research.

But translating budget increases into operational naval capability will take years. European defense tech funding surged from €200 million in 2021 to €2.6 billion in 2025, yet maritime surveillance, autonomous vessel deployment, and long-range strike platforms remain concentrated in US inventories. The coalition’s inability to deploy military assets without American coordination underscores Europe’s dependence on US command-and-control infrastructure—a dependency Trump’s statements now place in doubt.

Commodity Cascade

Beyond oil and gas, the closure has disrupted global fertiliser supplies critical to the spring planting season. Up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers transit the strait, and urea prices have climbed 50% since late March. Federal Reserve analysts project fertiliser prices will average 15-20% higher through the first half of 2026, threatening crop yields in import-dependent regions across Africa and South Asia.

The agricultural impact compounds Europe’s energy crisis. Jet fuel costs have already forced several regional carriers to cut routes, while ammonia-dependent industrial processes face input shortages. The integrated nature of Gulf commodity exports means that even a partial reopening of crude flows will leave fertiliser and petrochemical supply chains disrupted unless Iran permits full commercial passage.

What to Watch

The coalition’s next moves will test whether Western allies can coordinate autonomous security operations without US military backbone. Britain and France are positioning naval assets in the Gulf of Oman, but any freedom-of-navigation operation would require minesweeping, air cover, and anti-ship missile defense—capabilities currently provided by the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain. Trump’s ambiguous signaling leaves open whether American forces will provide intelligence sharing or logistical support even if they do not actively patrol the strait.

China’s bilateral arrangements with Iran create a separate track that could either stabilise partial flows or incentivise other nations to negotiate outside the coalition framework, fragmenting the multilateral response. If Beijing secures reliable passage while European vessels remain blocked, the crisis will accelerate the bifurcation of global energy markets along geopolitical lines—a shift with implications extending well beyond this single chokepoint.

European defense ministers meet April 15 in Brussels to finalise military working group structures. The question is whether those structures will coordinate actual deployments or serve as diplomatic theater while energy prices dictate the political timeline for rapprochement with Tehran.