Israel’s Lebanon strikes threaten to collapse US-Iran ceasefire hours after announcement

Israel launched over 100 coordinated airstrikes across Lebanon on Wednesday killing at least 254 people, hours after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement brokered by Pakistan, immediately threatening to unravel the fragile two-week truce.

The attacks, conducted within 10 minutes and representing the largest Israeli military operation since the war began in March, triggered a cascading diplomatic crisis as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon — directly contradicting Pakistan’s claim that the agreement covered hostilities “everywhere.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded bluntly: “The U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.”

Ceasefire scope dispute erupts

The fundamental disagreement centres on whether the ceasefire — announced April 7-8 following 40 days of escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — covers Lebanon and Hezbollah operations. Iran’s 10-point proposal, which forms the basis of negotiations scheduled to begin April 10 in Islamabad, explicitly demands cessation of all hostilities including proxy conflicts, according to Xinhua.

Netanyahu rejected that interpretation outright. “The ceasefire with Iran is a positive step for maritime security, but it does not include Lebanon,” he said Wednesday. “Our campaign to neutralize Hezbollah and secure our northern border will continue with full force.”

Vice President JD Vance reinforced the US position in remarks to reporters: “The United States never once said [Lebanon] was part of the ceasefire. If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them… that’s ultimately their choice,” according to Axios.

Iran threatens retaliatory spiral

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of violating three components of the 10-point ceasefire proposal within hours of its announcement, citing “the deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments,” per CNBC.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps escalated Thursday morning, with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stating “our hands are on the trigger, and the moment the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be met with full force,” according to NPR. Iranian state media reported oil tankers had been stopped in the Strait of Hormuz in response to the Lebanon strikes, though the White House disputed a full closure.

Hezbollah responded overnight with its first rocket attack since the ceasefire announcement, stating attacks would continue “until Israeli-American aggression ceases,” Haaretz reported. Three children were lightly injured in the Negev from rocket fire.

Oil markets whipsaw on Hormuz threats

Brent crude futures fell to $96.24 per barrel on April 8 following initial ceasefire optimism, then recovered slightly to $97.42 on April 9 as Iran’s breach accusations circulated, according to Trading Economics. However, spot Brent crude hit $124.68 per barrel on April 8 — the highest single-day pricing since the ceasefire announcement — reflecting deep market concern over disruption durability.

The $28 intraday swing represents extreme volatility driven by conflicting signals on Strait of Hormuz transit status. NPR, citing Lloyd’s List shipping data, reported only 3 vessels transited the strait since the ceasefire announcement versus a normal daily rate exceeding 20 ships. The strait handles roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids transit.

Humanitarian crisis deepens

The April 8 strikes bring total Lebanese deaths since the war’s escalation on March 2 to over 1,500, including more than 130 children, with 1.2 million people — nearly 20% of Lebanon’s population — displaced, according to UN News. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk called the scale of killing “nothing short of horrific,” stating it “places enormous pressure on a fragile peace, which is so desperately needed by civilians.”

The strikes targeted residential areas across Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley without advance warning, contradicting Israel’s previous practice of issuing evacuation notices before major operations. Lebanese civil defence officials reported the casualty figure represents preliminary counts, with many victims still buried under rubble.

What to watch

The April 10 negotiations in Islamabad now face collapse before they begin. Iran’s willingness to proceed depends on US enforcement of what Tehran considers explicit ceasefire terms covering Lebanon, while the Trump administration maintains Lebanon was never included in the agreement. The core question: whether Iran will accept a limited ceasefire excluding Hezbollah — its primary regional proxy — or walk away from negotiations that temporarily lifted the Hormuz blockade.

Energy markets will price three scenarios over the next 72 hours: full ceasefire collapse with resumed Hormuz closure (likely $15-20 per barrel Brent spike), partial negotiation preserving strait access while Lebanon fighting continues (current $96-100 range), or diplomatic salvage achieving comprehensive ceasefire including Lebanon (potential decline to $85-90). Shipping insurers are already repricing Hormuz transit policies, with Lloyd’s syndicates reportedly increasing war risk premiums 40-60% for vessels loading at Gulf terminals.

Watch for IRGC Naval Force movements near Hormuz chokepoints, particularly around Qeshm Island and the Musandam Peninsula, where Iran stations fast-attack craft and anti-ship missile batteries. Any closure lasting beyond 48 hours would trigger global LNG supply disruption affecting Asian spot markets within a week, cascading to European gas prices via arbitrage mechanisms.