Europe Has Three Weeks Before Jet Fuel Runs Out

European airports are three weeks from a systemic jet fuel shortage that threatens to ground flights across the continent, according to Airports Council International Europe, which warned the European Commission on 9 April that current reserves will be exhausted by early May unless Gulf supplies resume.

The crisis follows Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026 after US-Israel military operations. With the last Persian Gulf tanker scheduled to arrive in Rotterdam on 10 April, Europe’s Aviation sector faces its most acute supply crisis since the Russia conflict began in 2022. Only two EU countries maintain 90-day emergency reserves, and domestic refineries are already operating at maximum capacity with no ability to increase output.

Physical Supply Cliff Approaches

Europe imports 43% of its annual aviation fuel from the Persian Gulf, with 42% of seaborne imports to the EU-27 and UK transiting the Strait of Hormuz, per Kpler trade data. The waterway’s closure has eliminated over 20% of global seaborne jet fuel supply, according to Kpler senior oil analyst George Shaw.

Reserve depletion timelines vary sharply by country. The UK holds approximately three months of supply, Portugal four months, Hungary five months, and Denmark six months, according to Argus Media projections cited by Euronews. Italy and Germany have seven-month reserves, while France and Ireland maintain eight months. Current aggregate supplies are scheduled to run out between the second and third week of May for most major aviation markets.

The International Energy Agency characterised the Strait closure as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. European refining capacity is already operating at maximum output with no physical possibility of adding further production quotas through summer, according to three EU sources quoted by Corriere della Sera.

Rationing Begins in Italy

Italy’s four major airports — Milan Linate, Bologna, Venice, and Treviso — implemented emergency jet fuel rationing on 4 April through Air BP Italia. Short-haul flights are now limited to 2,000 litres per aircraft, with priority given to emergency, long-haul, and medical flights, according to Travel and Tour World. Regional fuel stocks reached critical levels on 3 April.

Mediterranean Jet A-1 prices surged to $1,150 per metric tonne following the rationing announcement, up 22% from already-elevated levels caused by tanker rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Jet fuel prices have increased 95% since the US-Israel operations began in late February, per Euronews data.

Carriers Scramble as Prices Spike

Scandinavian Airlines cancelled at least 1,000 flights in April, while Lufthansa is developing plans to ground 40 aircraft — approximately 5% of its fleet capacity — according to Bloomberg and Euronews reporting. Airfares on international and regional routes have surged 30-40%, with additional fuel surcharges further inflating travel costs.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told OilPrice.com the airline does not expect disruption until early May, but projected summer cancellations of 5-10% of flights if the strait remains closed. The carrier has hedged 80% of its fuel costs, but faces exposure to $150 per barrel equivalent pricing on the unhedged portion.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned it “may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer,” signalling potential margin compression across the carrier sector even for airlines with partial hedging protection.

Macro Implications Mount

Air connectivity contributes €851 billion in GDP annually to European economies and supports 14 million jobs, according to Airports Council International data. Airports handle 26% of Europe’s exports by value, making sustained disruption a systemic economic threat beyond the tourism sector.

The IMF and European Central Bank warned in April that prolonged conflict will likely push Germany and Italy into technical recession by end of 2026, per Travel and Tour World reporting on the institutions’ latest projections. The jet fuel crisis compounds existing Inflation pressures from elevated energy costs following Russia sanctions.

What to Watch

The three-week deadline expires by early May, creating a binary scenario: either diplomatic resolution reopens the Strait of Hormuz or Europe faces its first systemic aviation fuel shortage in modern history. Energy analysts project jet fuel prices could fall 30-40% within six weeks if resolution occurs by mid-April, but every day of continued closure narrows the window for summer travel season recovery.

Watch for emergency EU-level coordination on reserve sharing and allocation protocols — currently absent despite the crisis timeline. Carrier earnings calls in late April will reveal the extent of hedging protection and pricing power as fuel costs surge. Tourism bookings data for June-August will show whether demand destruction is accelerating ahead of potential supply-forced cancellations.

The structural question persists beyond this acute crisis: Europe’s jet fuel import dependency and lack of strategic reserves represent a permanent vulnerability in an era of Middle East instability and fragmented global energy markets. Without domestic refining expansion or coordinated reserve policy, the continent remains three weeks from aviation collapse whenever Gulf supplies face disruption.