Europe Faces Physical Jet Fuel Shortage by June as Hormuz Closure Depletes Supplies

Europe could experience physical jet fuel shortages by early June if it can replace only 50% of its normal Middle Eastern supplies, according to the International Energy Agency in a 14 April report. The continent now faces a six-week countdown to systemic fuel supply failure during peak summer travel season, threatening €851 billion in annual aviation-dependent GDP and 14 million jobs.

The crisis stems from three converging factors: the 28 February closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israel strikes on Iran, chronic European refinery margin compression forcing production cuts, and strategic petroleum reserve depletion after emergency drawdowns. Europe’s extreme dependency on Middle Eastern jet fuel—375,000 barrels per day representing 75% of net imports—has left the continent with zero flexibility to absorb a sustained supply disruption.

The Supply Math Doesn’t Work

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed over 20% of typical global seaborne jet fuel supply, according to Euronews, citing Kpler trade intelligence. The last jet fuel cargoes from the Strait arrived at European ports around 10 April—meaning inventories are now drawing down against summer demand with no replacement pipeline from the region.

If European nations secure alternative supplies covering only 50% of normal Middle Eastern volumes, physical shortages and demand destruction emerge at select airports by June, per the IEA. The agency’s model shows stocks would fall below the critical 23-day demand cover threshold—a level Europe has not breached since 2020. At 75% replacement, the timeline extends to August, still within peak travel months.

Alternative sourcing is underway but insufficient. The United States is functioning as the primary replacement supplier, but transatlantic shipping adds 10–14 days to delivery timelines compared to Persian Gulf routes. Spain maintains surplus stocks as a net exporter, while the UK imports 65% of its jet fuel demand and faces acute vulnerability.

Refinery Margin Collapse Compounds Crisis

European refiners entered the Hormuz crisis already structurally impaired. Northwest European gasoline refining margins fell to $8.63 per barrel in February, while S&P Global forecasts light sweet cracking margins declining from $8 per barrel in 2025 to $6.40 within the decade. This margin compression forced 500,000 barrels per day of refining capacity offline in 2025, reducing the continent’s ability to substitute domestic jet fuel production for lost imports.

The timing maximises economic damage. Air travel generates €851 billion in GDP for European economies annually and supports 14 million jobs, according to CNBC, citing Airports Council International Europe. The organisation warned on 10 April that systemic jet fuel shortage could materialise within three weeks if Strait passage does not resume, disrupting May–August peak season when load factors and ticket yields are highest.

Airlines Already Cutting Capacity

Commercial operators are not waiting for the IEA’s June deadline. Scandinavian carrier SAS cancelled 1,000 flights in April, while Wizz Air warned of a €50 million hit to 2026 net profit in March. Virgin Atlantic CEO Corneel Koster told the Financial Times in April that the airline will struggle to turn a profit this year even after adding fuel surcharges, and that “no matter what happens in the Gulf going forward, some of this disruption to global Energy prices will be here to stay.”

Fuel rationing is already in effect at seven Italian airports, with Air BP Italia capping allocation at 2,000 litres per aircraft for non-priority short-haul flights, according to Powerboat News. Northwest European jet fuel prices reached $1,573 per tonne in April—more than double the $750 pre-conflict level. Singapore benchmark pricing hit $1,710 per tonne, up 130% year-over-year.

Strategic Reserve Depletion Removes Buffer

IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles on 12 March—the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency’s history, reported Xinhua. Germany released 19.51 million barrels while France contributed 14.5 million barrels. These reserves, already depleted from Ukraine-related drawdowns in 2022–2023, now offer limited cushion against further supply shocks.

The UK maintains approximately three months of commercial jet fuel reserves, while Germany holds seven months. But these stocks are designed for gradual drawdown during temporary disruptions, not sustained replacement of 75% of import supply. Spain’s position as a net exporter with plentiful stocks makes it an intra-European redistribution hub, though moving fuel from Iberian refineries to Northern European airports adds logistical costs and time.

What to Watch

The European jet fuel shortage timeline now depends on three variables: Strait of Hormuz reopening, alternative supply procurement speed, and demand destruction from high prices. If the Strait remains closed through May, the IEA’s early June shortage window becomes the base case. Airlines with longer booking horizons will begin pre-emptive capacity cuts in the coming weeks to avoid being caught with unsellable tickets when fuel allocation tightens.

Inventory data from Rotterdam and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) terminals will provide weekly signals of drawdown pace. If stocks approach 25 days of cover by early May—two days above the IEA’s critical threshold—expect accelerated rationing at secondary airports and suspension of unprofitable short-haul routes. European aviation faces its most acute fuel supply crisis since the 1973 oil embargo, with no clear resolution timeline as long as the Hormuz chokepoint remains contested.