Israel Awaits US Green Light for Iran Strikes as Oil Hits $103
Defense Minister Katz's explicit conditioning of military action on US approval signals coordinated escalation timeline, compressing diplomatic window as Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Thursday that Israel is prepared to resume war against Iran, with targets marked and forces ready, pending a ‘green light from the United States’ to strike Iranian leadership and energy infrastructure.
The explicit conditioning of military action on US approval, disclosed in Katz’s April 23 statement, removes ambiguity about coordination mechanics between Washington and Jerusalem. VINnews reported Katz’s declaration that the IDF stands ready “in defense and offense” while awaiting US authorization to target the Khamenei leadership dynasty and critical energy installations. The framing suggests decision windows measured in days to weeks rather than months, elevating near-term escalation probability as the April 7-8 ceasefire shows no signs of diplomatic breakthrough.
Brent crude traded at $103.38 per barrel Thursday morning, per Fortune, reflecting sustained supply disruption from Iran’s February closure of the Strait of Hormuz following joint US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The US Energy Information Administration projects Brent will average $115 per barrel in Q2 2026 before declining to $88 in Q4, with Middle East production shut-ins expected to peak at 9.1 million barrels per day in April.
“We are awaiting a green light from the United States — first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty… and additionally to return Iran to the Dark Age and the Stone Age by destroying key energy and electricity facilities and dismantling its national economic infrastructure.”
— Israel Katz, Defense Minister
Coordination Mechanics and Target Selection
Katz’s statement to Asharq Al-Awsat outlined a dual-track targeting approach: eliminating Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, designated March 8 following his father’s death, and destroying energy infrastructure to cripple national economic capacity. The explicit US approval requirement indicates Netanyahu’s government has secured Trump administration alignment on escalation triggers and objectives, replacing unilateral action risk with coordinated strategic planning.
President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely on April 22, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” leadership, according to CNBC. Yet Trump’s simultaneous declaration of “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and authorization for US Navy forces to destroy Iranian vessels planting mines suggests the administration views military pressure and diplomacy as parallel tracks rather than sequential options. The Senate rejected a war powers resolution requiring congressional approval for Iran military action 46-51 on April 22, removing a procedural constraint on executive decision-making.
Iranian Deterrence Posture Under Pressure
Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, CNBC reported, maintaining its chokepoint control while facing a weakened strategic position. The new Khamenei leadership, designated barely six weeks into a conflict that began February 28, confronts fractured decision-making structures and crushing economic pressure from the US naval blockade. Trump’s April 23 statement that Iran “doesn’t have time” while “the clock is ticking” frames the diplomatic window as finite and narrowing.
Regional proxy activation remains constrained compared to historical Iranian crisis response patterns. Foreign Policy analysis from early March found Hezbollah resumed rocket attacks within two days of the February strikes, Iraqi militia forces expressed readiness to defend Iran, but Houthi forces in Yemen largely held back — suggesting autonomous decision-making by proxy networks rather than centralized Iranian command. This decoupling reduces Tehran’s escalation leverage while increasing unpredictability if Israeli strikes trigger uncoordinated proxy responses.
The US Navy maintains 19 ships in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, with an additional seven vessels positioned in the Indian Ocean as of April 23, per CNN. Trump authorized shoot-to-kill orders for Iranian vessels planting mines, eliminating operational hesitation in naval confrontations. Israel activated air defenses in Tehran on April 23 against unspecified “hostile targets,” though the IDF has not confirmed conducting strikes.
Macro Implications and Supply Chain Stress
The 4-5 million barrel per day disruption — roughly 5% of global supply — hits Asian markets hardest, according to Trading Economics supply chain analysis. Oil-driven inflation pressure builds as the EIA projects disruptions continuing through late 2026 even under optimistic scenarios. A resumption of Israeli strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure would compound existing supply constraints, potentially pushing crude above the $115 Q2 average forecast if refinery capacity or export terminals suffer damage.
The explicit US authorization requirement suggests the Trump administration seeks to control escalation timing rather than prevent it. Katz’s public statement that targets are “marked” and forces stand ready creates a credible threat position while leaving diplomatic off-ramps available if Iran’s negotiators shift posture. Iran’s top negotiator stated Tehran will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threat,” per NBC News, framing the current standoff as a test of coercive diplomacy mechanics.
What to Watch
Monitor US-Israel coordination signals for approval timing, particularly any Trump administration statements linking diplomatic deadlines to military action. Track Iranian negotiating position shifts or hardening — any movement toward accepting talks “under threat” would indicate strategic reassessment. Oil futures positioning will telegraph market expectations for strike timing, with sharp movements likely 24-48 hours before any operation as intelligence leaks or force movements become visible.
Proxy force activation remains the wild card. Hezbollah’s response cadence, Iraqi militia coordination, and any shift in Houthi restraint would signal whether Tehran retains centralized escalation control or whether the conflict fragments into multiple autonomous fronts. The EIA’s projected production shut-in peak of 9.1 million barrels per day in April serves as a baseline — any Israeli strikes on energy infrastructure would push disruption levels materially higher, potentially triggering $120+ crude if refinery capacity suffers lasting damage.
The diplomatic window closes as Trump’s “clock is ticking” rhetoric hardens and Katz’s targets remain marked. Absent breakthrough progress in talks, the probability of coordinated US-authorized Israeli strikes within 2-4 weeks rises materially, with cascading implications for regional stability, energy markets, and inflation trajectories through year-end.