Trump Claims US Monitoring Buried Iranian Uranium, Threatens New Strikes as Ceasefire Collapses

President Donald Trump claimed on 10 May that US Space Force assets are actively monitoring buried Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles and threatened to ‘blow it up’ if anyone approaches the sites, marking a significant escalation in rhetoric just days after rejecting Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal.

The twin announcements — surveillance claims paired with threats of renewed strikes — pushed Brent crude up 3.17% to $104.50 on 10 May, reversing losses from earlier in the week when oil briefly traded below $100. Markets are now pricing in either rapid diplomatic collapse or major military action before the end of May, with Trump stating the US has achieved roughly 70% of military objectives and can sustain operations ‘another two weeks,’ per Daily News Egypt.

The escalation comes as the fragile ceasefire announced 7 April appears near collapse. Trump rejected Iran’s response to US peace terms with a statement posted online: ‘I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called Representatives. I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!’ according to CNN. Iran had proposed counter-demands including full sanctions relief and recognition of uranium enrichment rights — terms incompatible with the US position requiring ‘zero enrichment.’

The Uranium Monitoring Claim

Trump’s assertion that Space Force is tracking buried uranium represents either a significant intelligence capability disclosure or strategic bluffing designed to deter Iranian relocation efforts. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated Iran possesses material for ten Nuclear devices and over 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, citing IAEA verification data from June 2025 showing more than 400kg at 60% purity.

The claim aligns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s demand that enriched uranium ‘must be taken out’ of Iran, with Netanyahu revealing Trump told him ‘I want to go in there and I think it can be done physically,’ per Times of Israel. This suggests coordinated US-Israeli planning for potential ground operations targeting nuclear sites — a threshold not yet crossed in the conflict that began 28 February with strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Iran rejected Trump’s monitoring claims. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated ‘every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure,’ according to CBS News. The country has consistently refused the US demand for zero enrichment, viewing peaceful nuclear development as a sovereign right under international law.

Oil Volatility Intensifies

Energy markets whipsawed through the first week of May before the latest escalation. June WTI futures swung between $107.46 and $88.66 before stabilizing near $97 by 7 May. The Friday close at $100.06 for Brent briefly suggested markets were pricing in ceasefire extension — a position now unwound following Trump’s weekend rejection.

The conflict has generated what the International Energy Agency characterised as the ‘largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,’ with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz removing 20% of global supplies, according to UK Parliament research. US Central Command reported 61 commercial vessels have been redirected by the American blockade against Iran as of 10 May.

Major energy producers have captured gains from sustained high prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron were both up approximately 40% year-to-date as of late April, though current figures likely reflect further appreciation following the latest escalation cycle.

Defense Positioning and Sanctions Calculus

Defense stocks have paradoxically underperformed during the conflict, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF down about 12% since early March. The counterintuitive move reflects investor concern about protracted conflict economics versus clean resolution scenarios that would validate higher defence budgets without long-term operational strain.

Energy Secretary Wright suggested Iranian leadership faces ‘growing motivation to make a deal’ given economic damage from the blockade and strikes. However, the zero-enrichment demand appears non-negotiable for the US while Iran has shown no willingness to accept terms it views as infringing on NPT rights — creating a structural impasse that Trump’s surveillance claims and strike threats may be designed to break through intimidation rather than negotiation.

Trump stated that even if US forces withdrew today, ‘it would take them 20 years to rebuild,’ suggesting confidence in degradation of Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The 70% objective completion rate he cited implies the administration views one or two additional strike packages as sufficient to achieve campaign goals — a timeline consistent with his ‘another two weeks’ operational window.

What to Watch

Markets will track Iranian diplomatic responses to Trump’s rejection for signals of flexibility or further hardening. Any movement toward accepting enrichment limits — even above zero but below weapons-grade thresholds — could revive negotiations and pressure oil lower. Conversely, Iranian counter-escalation or attempts to relocate uranium stockpiles would validate Trump’s monitoring claims and potentially trigger the promised strikes.

Oil futures positioning ahead of late-May will reveal whether traders expect diplomatic breakthrough or renewed military action. Current backwardation in crude markets suggests near-term supply concerns dominate, but a shift to contango would signal expectations of conflict resolution. Defense sector performance offers a secondary indicator — sustained underperformance suggests institutional doubt about clean exit scenarios.

Israeli actions remain the wildcard. Netanyahu’s public alignment with physical uranium extraction raises the possibility of unilateral Israeli operations if US-Iran talks collapse entirely. Such a scenario would likely push Brent above $120 and trigger broader regional instabilities that even successful strikes might not quickly resolve.