20,000 Seafarers Trapped in Persian Gulf as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Month

Approximately 20,000 seafarers remain trapped on 1,500 vessels in the Persian Gulf, nearly three months after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28.

The waterway, which normally handles 20% of global seaborne oil trade, has seen traffic collapse by 95% since the onset of hostilities. What began as geopolitical brinkmanship has crystallised into a Humanitarian Crisis, according to the UN International Maritime Organization, as crews—predominantly from India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Egypt—face unpaid wages, supply shortages, and physical threats with no clear path home.

The Human Cost of Chokepoint Warfare

At least 10 to 12 seafarers have been killed since the conflict began, according to Democracy Now, citing UN IMO estimates. The toll reflects the immediate dangers of operating in contested waters laced with Iranian mines, drone strikes, and vessel seizures by both Iranian and US naval forces.

Crew conditions aboard stranded vessels have deteriorated sharply. On the bulk carrier Auroura, seafarers reported shortages of food, fresh water, and basic supplies after weeks at anchor with no resupply options, per CNN. Union organisers describe a wider pattern of abandonment: some crews have gone 8 to 11 months without pay, facing intimidation from shipowners who refuse to cover repatriation costs or settle outstanding wages.

Mohamed Arrachedi, coordinator for the International Transport Workers’ Federation in the Arab world and Iran, told CNN that the situation goes beyond delayed transit. “It’s not only repatriation, it’s abandonment. Some seafarers have not been paid for eight or even 11 months.”

Anish, an Indian seafarer who requested anonymity, described a narrow escape route: crossing Iran’s 44-kilometre land border with Armenia to reach safety. Many of his compatriots have remained aboard, he told Al Jazeera, because they are still waiting to be paid.

Insurance Market Collapse and Economic Fallout

War-risk Insurance premiums have surged from 0.25% of vessel value before the conflict to 3% to 8% as of May 12, according to Khaleej Times. For a large crude carrier, that translates to $3 million to $8 million per transit—costs that have effectively priced most commercial shipping out of the strait.

Private insurers began withdrawing coverage in March as the scale of mine-laying and drone activity became clear. The US responded in April with a $40 billion reinsurance facility through the Development Finance Corporation, effectively turning the government into an insurer of last resort, per the World Economic Forum. The move underscores a broader market failure: commercial insurers proved unable to price risk in a conflict where conditions shift hourly.

Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, framed the dilemma in an interview with Al Jazeera: “If the situation changes by the hour, the risk becomes almost impossible to price responsibly. The market can insure volatility, but it struggles to insure uncertainty.”

Oil markets have reflected that uncertainty. Brent crude traded at $107.40 per barrel on May 15, up from approximately $70 before the crisis, according to The National News. The World Bank estimates that global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March—the largest single-month disruption in history. Analysts peg the geopolitical risk premium at $8 to $14 per barrel, meaning Brent would trade in the mid-$90s under normal supply conditions.

The Path to Reopening Remains Unclear

A nominal ceasefire took effect on April 7, but the strait remains contested. President Trump paused the ‘Project Freedom’ naval escort operation on May 6, citing progress in peace negotiations. Yet roughly 800 to 1,000 vessels are seeking to evacuate the area through the strait with no clear passage timeline, according to the UN IMO.

The physical barrier to reopening is mines. Jakob Larsen, head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Khaleej Times that a mine-clearance effort will most likely be needed to fully reopen the strait, with confined navigation corridors restricting throughput even after safe passage resumes. US Defense officials estimate the operation could take up to six months.

That timeline leaves tens of thousands of seafarers in limbo. Arrachedi, speaking to Democracy Now, noted the absence of any protective framework. “There is absolutely no protocol to protect them. We are talking here about protection, about physical integrity, about physical protection.”

What to Watch

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran will determine whether mine-clearance operations can begin under international supervision or remain stalled by sovereignty disputes. The fate of stranded crews hinges on diplomatic progress: without a formal transit protocol, ship operators face a choice between risking passage through uncleared waters or continuing to anchor indefinitely while paying crew wages and insurance premiums.

Insurance markets will signal reopening credibility. If premiums remain above 2% of vessel value into June, expect continued cargo diversification away from Persian Gulf routes, cementing structural shifts in global energy supply chains. India’s experience offers a preview: its crude oil basket price nearly doubled from $69 per barrel in February to $126 in March, peaking at $157, according to the Observer Research Foundation.

For the 20,000 seafarers still at anchor, the question is simpler: when can they go home. The answer depends less on geopolitical declarations than on the unglamorous work of clearing mines, restoring insurance confidence, and rebuilding the operational infrastructure that makes the world’s most critical chokepoint navigable. Until then, they wait.