Beijing’s Balancing Act: Xi Hedges Between Trump and Putin as Ukraine War Enters Third Year
China signals caution on Russia's Ukraine campaign while keeping Moscow close, revealing the limits of the no-limits partnership.
Xi Jinping’s consecutive summits with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin this week expose Beijing’s careful recalibration between Washington and Moscow, as China supplies 90% of Russia’s dual-use technology while simultaneously seeking economic stability with the United States. The sequencing is deliberate: Trump departed Beijing on May 15 after two days of talks focused on Taiwan, energy security, and Iran, followed immediately by Putin’s arrival on May 19 for what the Kremlin calls a test of the privileged and strategic partnership.
The Trump-Xi Convergence
The May 14-15 summit produced a framework Xi described as constructive strategic stability: positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay, healthy stability with competition within proper limits, constant stability with manageable differences. Trump reciprocated with praise for what he called the longest and greatest relationship the presidents of the two countries have ever had.
The substance beneath the diplomatic choreography matters more. Both leaders prioritised energy security, with China signaling interest in purchasing more US oil while warning that closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses mutual economic risks. Xi told Trump that Taiwan remains the most important issue in bilateral relations, warning that mishandling could lead to clashes and even conflicts. Trump’s transactional approach accepted this framing while securing tacit Chinese cooperation on Iran.
Russia’s Weakening Position
The timing of Putin’s visit exposes Moscow’s diminished leverage. Russia’s 2026 growth forecast was slashed to 0.4% from 1.3% due to Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure and ongoing sanctions uncertainty, according to CNBC. China-Russia bilateral trade remains above $200 billion for three consecutive years, but the strategic calculus has shifted.
“We have very serious expectations for this visit. The privileged and strategic partnership.”
— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman
NATO now labels China a decisive enabler of the Ukraine War, citing Chinese firms’ supply of dual-use goods for Russian munitions. The Diplomat reports China supplies Russian defence production with critical dual-use technology. Yet Beijing’s support comes with limits. European sources revealed that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated in July 2025 that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, citing concerns the US would refocus strategic attention on China and Taiwan post-conflict.
Beijing’s Hedging Strategy
China’s positioning reveals three concurrent objectives: preventing Russian collapse while avoiding sanctions exposure, managing US relations to secure economic interests, and maintaining influence over any Ukraine settlement. The contradiction is deliberate. Beijing provides Moscow with critical technology while signaling to Washington that it shares concerns about prolonged great-power conflict destabilizing energy markets and supply chains.
This approach carries risk. Trump’s convergence with Xi on managed relations substantially weakens Putin’s diplomatic hand, as analysed by Asia Times. If Beijing tilts too far toward Washington, Moscow loses its primary economic lifeline and diplomatic backstop. If China maintains current support levels, it faces escalating Western sanctions and potential restrictions on access to dollar-denominated markets.
The sequencing of summits reflects China’s diplomatic bandwidth and strategic priorities. By hosting Trump first, Xi signals that US relations take precedence over managing the Moscow partnership. Putin’s arrival immediately after Trump’s departure suggests Beijing is managing both relationships in tandem rather than choosing between them.
Economic Pressures Mount
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting energy price volatility create immediate pressure on China’s export-dependent economy. Higher oil prices benefit Russia in theory, but Ukrainian infrastructure attacks have capped Moscow’s ability to capitalise. For Beijing, prolonged conflict means sustained inflation risk and supply chain disruption at a moment when domestic consumption remains weak.
Trump’s transactional diplomacy offers China a path to secure energy supplies through increased US imports while maintaining sufficient support for Russia to prevent collapse. This explains Xi’s emphasis on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open and interest in purchasing more American oil.
What to Watch
The Putin-Xi summit this week will reveal whether Moscow accepts its diminished position or pushes for concrete Chinese commitments. Watch for announcements on energy deals, defence cooperation, or financial mechanisms to circumvent sanctions. Any joint statement on Ukraine will signal whether China is prepared to back Russian territorial claims or maintains flexibility for eventual negotiations.
Second, monitor US responses to Chinese dual-use exports. If Trump leverages international cooperation or sanctions architecture as negotiating tools with Beijing, it indicates Washington is weaponising diplomacy for transactional advantage rather than pursuing broad-based pressure campaigns.
Finally, track China’s positioning on any Ukraine peace initiatives. Asia Society notes Beijing has refused concrete initiatives beyond rhetorical support, preferring to position itself as a potential mediator in post-conflict reconstruction. If Xi offers substantive proposals this week, it suggests confidence that Trump will accept Chinese influence over any settlement framework.