Trump Convenes Situation Room for Iran Deal Decision as Oil Markets Brace for Outcome
White House finalises nuclear deal framework with Tehran, but conflicting demands over uranium disposal and sanctions relief threaten collapse
President Trump convened a Situation Room meeting on Friday to make a final determination on a tentative Iran deal after negotiators reached draft terms for a 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, setting up a decision with immediate implications for energy markets and regional stability.
The draft memorandum of understanding, still awaiting formal approval from both Trump and Supreme Leader Khamenei, would extend the ceasefire by 60 days while fully opening the Strait of Hormuz over that period, according to CNBC. Iran would remove mines within 30 days while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. But the gap between Trump’s public demands and Iran’s private red-lines suggests the deal remains fragile.
Trump’s Red-Lines vs. Tehran’s Counter-Demands
In a Truth Social post Friday morning, Trump laid out non-negotiable conditions: “Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated.” He added that “no money will be exchanged, until further notice,” per CNN.
Iranian state news outlet Fars rejected those claims hours later, stating the memorandum “raised issues that contradict the provisions of the agreement’s text” and asserting Iran demands immediate payment of $12 billion in frozen assets. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanani told reporters, “As I speak to you, message exchanges are of course ongoing, but no final understanding has been reached.”
The draft deal contains no reference to Iran dismantling or destroying its nuclear materials. Iran currently possesses 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity—a short technical step from weapons-grade 90%—according to International Atomic Energy Agency data cited by PBS NewsHour. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged on Thursday that the sides were “debating a couple of issues on the nuclear stuff, the highly enriched stockpile, and also the question of enrichment.”
“We’re in a position where we could substantially set back their nuclear program, not just during the term of this president but over the long term. That’s a very very good thing for the American people.”
— Vice President JD Vance
Energy Markets in Limbo
The Strait of Hormuz closure has restricted the flow of approximately 14 million barrels of oil per day since mid-May, choking roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, according to data from the International Energy Agency reported by Axios. Brent crude fell from $105.38 on May 24 to approximately $98.76 per barrel on May 25 evening on initial deal optimism, but rebounded to around $100 on May 27 after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.
U.S. average gasoline prices have increased more than 50% since the conflict began in late February, creating political pressure on the White House to secure a deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “the ultimate goal is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” but acknowledged the complexity of the approval process. A senior administration official told ABC News that “even if we get this language in a good place, it is going to take days for it to filter through their system and get an approval.”
The current negotiations stem from a 3-month-old conflict that began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A fragile ceasefire has held since April 7, punctuated by violations including U.S. strikes on May 27. The war has reshaped regional dynamics, with Israel seeking explicit guarantees on nuclear elimination and Gulf states balancing support for de-escalation against concerns about Iranian deterrent power.
Regional Spillover: Israel and Gulf States Hedge
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Trump assured him any final agreement “must eliminate the nuclear danger” and “reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon,” according to reporting by the Times of Israel. The language suggests Israel fears a narrow interim agreement that leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact while lifting Sanctions pressure.
Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have publicly supported de-escalation but privately expressed concerns about Iranian deterrent power and reconstruction costs. The draft deal framework offers no explicit guarantees on regional security architecture or limits on Iran’s missile program, creating uncertainty for coalition partners who bore economic and military costs during the conflict.
- Trump’s Situation Room meeting finalises decision on 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening framework
- Iran’s 440.9 kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium remains central sticking point—deal contains no dismantlement language
- Oil markets priced in optimism prematurely: Brent fell 6% on deal hopes before rebounding on strike news
- Israel and Gulf states seek guarantees beyond interim ceasefire terms, complicating regional buy-in
What to Watch
Trump’s formal announcement will likely come within 24-48 hours of the Situation Room meeting, but implementation faces a multi-day approval process in Tehran. Watch for Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s response—his public statements on frozen asset release and nuclear program sovereignty will signal whether the draft survives first contact with domestic hardliners. Energy traders should monitor the $12 billion sanctions relief question: if Trump refuses immediate payment, Tehran may walk away regardless of other terms.
On the geopolitical side, Netanyahu’s demand for explicit nuclear elimination guarantees creates a veto point even if Washington and Tehran reach agreement. If Israel perceives the deal as kicking the uranium question down the road, expect renewed discussion of unilateral military options against Iranian enrichment facilities. Gulf states will calibrate their own Iran policies based on whether the deal includes meaningful constraints on Tehran’s missile program—absence of such language would accelerate regional arms acquisitions and security pacts independent of U.S. frameworks.
Oil market reaction will depend on the credibility of the Strait reopening timeline. A 60-day phased approach means energy supply normalization extends into August, keeping prices elevated through peak summer driving season. Any ceasefire violations or delays in mine clearance could trigger another spike toward $110+ per barrel, compounding inflation pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its June policy meeting.