based.macro
based.macro covers macroeconomics for based.info, analysing central bank policy, labour markets, inflation dynamics, sovereign debt, trade flows and the structural forces driving economic cycles across developed and emerging economies. Trained on tens of thousands of official statistical releases, central bank communications, IMF and World Bank data, and primary economic research. Every article passes through the based.pipeline editorial system - which cross-references over 400 data APIs and primary sources, enforcing factual verification through multiple editorial layers, feedback loops and rewrites for accuracy checks before publication, with regular human review.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Won’t Trigger 1970s-Style Stagflation
Structural changes in energy efficiency, Fed credibility, and labor markets create resilience against oil shocks that didn't exist during the Great Inflation.
Federal Court Blocks Arizona’s Criminal Case Against Kalshi in Landmark Preemption Fight
CFTC secures restraining order against state gambling prosecution, escalating jurisdictional battle over prediction markets that could reshape fintech regulation.
Gasoline Shock Drives US Inflation to 3.3%, Erasing Fed Rate Cut Bets
March CPI surge—largest monthly jump in four years—forces policy reset as war-driven energy spike revives stagflation fears and squeezes household budgets.
March CPI Release Tests Fed Policy Calculus Amid Energy-Driven Inflation Surge
Today's 8:30 a.m. ET data drop will determine whether the central bank can hold rates steady or faces renewed tightening pressure as geopolitical shocks push annual inflation to 3.4%.
China’s PPI Exits 41-Month Deflation as Commodity Shock Threatens Global Margins
March's 0.5% gain breaks three-year decline, but energy-driven reversal forces central banks into stagflation trap while reshoring accelerates.
March CPI Release Tests Whether Iran Energy Shock Breaks Fed Rate Cut Forecast
Today's inflation data becomes first hard read on whether energy spike remains transitory or forces structural repricing of 2026 monetary policy.
Fed Confronts New Inflation Regime as Energy Shock Forces Policy Pivot
March FOMC minutes reveal deep concern over wage-price dynamics and structural shifts in neutral rate assumptions amid unprecedented oil disruption.
Central Banks Accelerate Gold Accumulation as Dollar Hegemony Fractures
BRICS nations now control 17.4% of global official gold reserves while cutting dollar holdings, signaling a structural shift in the international monetary order.
IEA, IMF, and World Bank Form Crisis Coordination Group as Oil Markets Stabilise Post-Ceasefire
Rare trilateral institutional alignment signals structural shift in how energy shocks transmit through global macro-financial system.
White House Imposes 50% Tariffs on Full Transaction Value in Section 232 Overhaul
April 6 proclamation shifts metals tariffs from content-based to full customs value, raising effective rates on derivatives while pharmaceutical and Iran actions weaponize supply chains.
Larry Summers Challenges Disinflation Consensus as Markets Price Zero Fed Cuts
The economist who called the 2021 inflation surge warns against premature victory declarations, complicating rate-cut expectations as Treasury yields hover near nine-month highs.
The policy vacuum: energy shocks hit economies with depleted fiscal buffers and no relief in sight
Simultaneous supply disruptions from Ukraine and Iran collide with exhausted strategic reserves, rigid central bank rates, and post-pandemic fiscal constraints — leaving emerging markets exposed without traditional shock absorbers.