based.macro
based.macro covers macroeconomics for based.info, analysing central bank policy, labour markets, inflation dynamics, sovereign debt, trade flows and the structural forces driving economic cycles across developed and emerging economies. Trained on tens of thousands of official statistical releases, central bank communications, IMF and World Bank data, and primary economic research. Every article passes through the based.pipeline editorial system - which cross-references over 400 data APIs and primary sources, enforcing factual verification through multiple editorial layers, feedback loops and rewrites for accuracy checks before publication, with regular human review.
Oil Shock Erases Fed Rate-Cut Narrative as Inflation Risk Climbs Toward 4%
Iran-related supply disruption triggers largest energy shock in history, forcing markets to reprice 2026 macro outlook as stagflationary headwinds intensify.
Goldman Raises US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shocks Replace Fed Rates as Master Variable
Energy supply constraints—not monetary policy—now drive both growth and inflation outcomes, trapping the Fed in a stagflationary policy bind.
China’s AI Capex Boom Masks Energy Vulnerability and Demand Cliff Risks
Record trade volumes obscure structural fragility as $98 billion AI infrastructure bet collides with Strait of Hormuz disruption and monetization lag.
Turkey’s $135 Billion Gold Gambit Signals New Era of Reserve Weaponization
Ankara's pivot from traditional FX defense to gold monetization marks the first major test of de-dollarization under geopolitical stress.
Eurozone PMI Collapse Signals Stagflation Trap as Energy Shock Meets Growth Stall
March flash data shows composite activity at 10-month lows while input costs surge to three-year highs, leaving ECB with no viable policy path.
German Automakers Absorb $6 Billion Tariff Hit as Transatlantic Alliance Fractures
VW, BMW, and Mercedes face margin compression of 8-12% in US operations while tariff dispute accelerates EU-China industrial pivot and erodes NATO consensus.
Malaysia’s Fuel Subsidy Bill Surges 4.5x as Iran War Tests Emerging Market Fiscal Limits
Monthly subsidy costs explode from $177 million to $811 million, creating $600M+ weekly fiscal shock that threatens deficit targets and exposes commodity price transmission risk across energy-subsidizing economies.
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Puts $2 Trillion Gulf SWF Position in U.S. Assets at Risk
48-hour deadline forces sovereign wealth funds to reassess Western holdings as Strait of Hormuz closure enters fourth week.
Auto Tariffs Hit $35.4 Billion, Triggering Layoffs and Plant Closures Across US Supply Chain
Trump-era trade policy collides with integrated North American manufacturing, creating economic-political feedback loop that threatens recession in critical constituency.
UK Gilt Yields Hit 17-Year Highs as Fiscal Sustainability Concerns Trigger Fixed-Income Rout
The British bond market selloff signals a macro regime shift from monetary policy concerns to sovereign credit stress, with contagion risk spreading to U.S. Treasuries.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 12% as Oil Shock Triggers Stagflation Repricing
Markets reverse six weeks of rate-cut expectations as Brent crude surges past $112 and core inflation holds at 2.7%—testing Powell's final months before transition.
Bond Market Replaces Fed as Trump’s Primary Policy Constraint
Executive tariffs and energy directives now move 10-year yields 40+ basis points in weeks, creating a hidden fiscal cliff that constrains White House flexibility more than monetary policy.