Canada and India Lock In $2.6 Billion Uranium Deal as Diplomatic Ice Melts
Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a decade-long nuclear fuel supply agreement in Delhi, resetting ties frozen since 2023's assassination crisis.
Canada and India signed a 10-year uranium supply agreement worth CAD $2.6 billion on March 2, marking the most significant economic accord between the countries since diplomatic relations collapsed over the 2023 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The deal positions Canada as a critical partner in India’s nuclear expansion as New Delhi pursues a twelve-fold capacity increase to 100 GW by 2047.
The Numbers Behind the Nuclear Bet
Cameco Corp. will supply 22 million pounds of uranium from 2027 through 2035, according to Bloomberg. The agreement, finalized during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first official visit to India, supplies fuel for India’s Department of Atomic Energy to power the country’s growing nuclear fleet.
CAD $2.6B
22M lbs
2027-2035
100 GW by 2047
India currently operates 8,180 MW of nuclear capacity, representing just 3% of electricity generation according to Sustainable Futures Collaborative. The government plans to reach 22,480 MW by 2031-32, with uranium needs projected at 8,000 tonnes of natural and 1,000 tonnes of enriched uranium annually by 2047, as reported by the India Brand Equity Foundation.
For Canada, the arrangement locks in a major Asian buyer at a time when Canada produces 24% of global uranium output, making it the world’s second-largest producer behind Kazakhstan, according to Natural Resources Canada. Currently, Canadian uranium shipments go to North and South America (44%), Asia (17%), and Europe (39%) — India’s deal represents a material shift in that export geography.
From Assassination Crisis to Energy Partnership
The agreement caps a diplomatic rehabilitation that began 15 months after Nijjar was shot and killed in June 2023, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stating intelligence agencies were pursuing credible allegations of Indian government involvement, as documented by Wikipedia. The accusation triggered mutual expulsion of diplomatic staff, with Canada closing three consulates in India.
Carney’s approach marks a strategic pivot. According to CBC News, the two countries set a goal to more than double two-way trade to $70 billion a year by 2030, up from $9.36 billion in 2023. The leaders also committed to conclude a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement by end-2026.
Canada and India have nuclear cooperation history dating to the 1950s. Canada supplied the CIRUS research reactor that contributed to India’s 1974 nuclear test, prompting a decades-long freeze in nuclear ties. The 2010 Nuclear Cooperation Agreement and its 2013 implementation created the legal framework for renewed uranium trade, with previous Cameco supply agreements running from 2015-2020.
Canada’s Uranium Leverage in Asian Markets
The India contract represents Canada’s most assertive push into Asian nuclear markets since uranium exports resumed. Cameco has over 35 years of experience in Saskatchewan’s uranium industry, with production concentrated in the Athabasca Basin, which hosts deposits with grades some one hundred times the world average according to the World Nuclear Association.
In Saskatchewan in 2024, the uranium mining sector employed more than 2,300 people and contributed more than $2.5 billion to provincial GDP, according to the Government of Saskatchewan. The India deal ensures sustained production levels through the next decade as global nuclear capacity expands.
The timing aligns with Canada’s strategic diversification away from U.S. dependence. Currently, Canada supplies 33% of uranium purchased by U.S. nuclear reactors, making it the largest foreign supplier. But with tensions over tariffs and trade, Ottawa sees India — alongside Japan and South Korea — as critical to balancing export risk.
“The global demand for secure, carbon-free nuclear power is rising rapidly, and India is at the forefront with ambitious expansion plans for its civil Nuclear Energy program.”
— Tim Gitzel, CEO of Cameco
India’s Nuclear Fuel Calculus
India’s uranium supply chain has historically relied on domestic production supplemented by imports from Russia and Kazakhstan. The Canadian agreement diversifies that mix as New Delhi accelerates reactor construction. India depends heavily on imported uranium to fuel its nuclear reactors, with Canada, being one of the world’s largest uranium producers, serving as a dependable long-term partner, according to India TV News.
The fuel will support India’s existing Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) and planned Light Water Reactors (LWRs). The proposed reactor mix for 2047 includes 46.5 GW from PHWRs, 38.8 GW from PWRs, 5 GW from Fast Breeder Reactors, and 10 GW from small modular reactors, according to the India Brand Equity Foundation.
| Year | Capacity (GW) | Share of Generation |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8.2 | 3% |
| 2032 | 22.5 | 8-10% |
| 2047 | 100 | — |
The scale of India’s ambition is unprecedented. With current nuclear capacity of around 8 GW and a target of 100 GW by 2047, India’s ambitions represent a more than ten-fold expansion, far exceeding the global average growth rate, as noted by the World Nuclear Association. Nuclear will complement India’s 500 GW renewable energy target by 2030, providing baseload power as coal plants retire.
Geopolitical Realignment
The deal reflects broader strategic shifts. For Canada, facing U.S. tariff threats under President Donald Trump, India represents a hedge. Carney has emphasized diversification toward the Indo-Pacific, with parallel engagements in Australia and Japan during the same trip.
For India, the Canadian partnership reduces reliance on Russian nuclear fuel amid Western sanctions and offers an alternative to Chinese influence in South Asia. The agreement also supports India’s climate commitments — nuclear is classified as clean energy under the country’s net-zero by 2070 pledge.
- Canada secures major Asian uranium customer as India pursues 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047
- Deal represents diplomatic reset 32 months after Nijjar assassination crisis froze bilateral ties
- Cameco to supply 22 million pounds of uranium over nine years starting 2027
- Both nations targeting $70 billion annual trade by 2030, up from $9.36 billion in 2023
- Agreement diversifies India’s fuel supply beyond Russia and Kazakhstan
What to Watch
Implementation hinges on political stability in both countries. Carney faces a federal election by October 2025, with polls showing the opposition Conservatives leading. In India, uranium import approvals require regulatory clearances that have historically faced delays.
The broader Canada-India relationship remains fragile. Sikh advocacy groups in Canada criticized Carney’s Delhi visit, with the World Sikh Organization expressing concern over a report alleging Indian consular officials in Vancouver supplied information to assist in Nijjar’s assassination, according to Al Jazeera. Whether economic pragmatism can fully override security grievances will determine if the diplomatic thaw holds.
Watch for the CEPA negotiations through year-end. If concluded, the trade deal would formalize tariff reductions and investment protections that could anchor the relationship beyond single-term politics. Failure to deliver risks this reset becoming another false start in a relationship defined by decades of unfulfilled potential.