China Resumes Large-Scale Military Flights Near Taiwan After Unexplained Pause

Five People’s Liberation Army aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on March 12, ending a week-long operational pause that had no clear strategic explanation. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected the aircraft between 6 a.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday, with three crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, according to The Japan Times.

From February 27 to March 5, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported no PLA aircraft operating in the airspace near Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, an unusually long pause that drew significant attention among regional observers. The seven-day absence of flights—including supply runs and repositioning—marked a rare operational silence, per Taiwan Security Monitor. The lull occurred despite ongoing Chinese Coast Guard operations around the Senkaku Islands and continued PLA activity elsewhere in the East China Sea.

No Precedent, No Consensus

Analysts offered competing theories. Previous years’ Two Sessions meetings have not seen significantly reduced operations in the month prior to the meetings, so there is no precedence, wrote Drew Thompson in his China Drew newsletter. Spring Festival holidays and winter weather conditions are rational explanations for reduced operations, but Thompson noted he didn’t observe exceptionally foul weather in February.

The reduction of operations ahead of a potential military campaign could indicate conservation of resources, reduction in wear and tear on military platforms, increased or accelerated maintenance cycles ahead of an intense campaign. If large numbers of PLA aircraft and ships suddenly stand down and go into maintenance at the same time, especially ahead of the spring good-weather window, that raises concerns. The Taiwan Strait is calm in the spring—perfect for amphibious operations.

There have been 21 days with no PLA flights around Taiwan since the announcement on January 25 that Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli are under investigation, though Thompson doubts the purges caused the reduction.

The TSMC Variable

The resumption of flights follows December’s Justice Mission 2025 drills, the largest and most comprehensive exercises to date, appearing to simulate a full blockade of Taiwan, per Visual Capitalist. A rocket artillery unit fired shells into the sea into the contiguous zone 24 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast on December 30—the closest fire to date, according to Defense News.

Taiwan accounts for over 60% of global foundry revenue and more than 90% of leading-edge chip manufacturing, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration. TSMC controlled about 68% of global pure-play foundry revenue by end-2024, and hit a record 70.2% foundry market share in Q2 2025, per Economy Insights. The concentration of semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan is the biggest geopolitical risk facing supply chains today—Taiwan-based companies control more than 90% of the world’s production of advanced microchips, notes Supply Chain analytics firm Interos.

Pattern Recognition Across Verticals

The tech-Geopolitics intersection is tightening. The 2026 PRC government work report changed the phrase “oppose Taiwan independence” to “crack down on Taiwan independence”—the more combative phrasing reflects expanding coercive efforts since the election of Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, according to a March 13 update from the Institute for the Study of War. The PRC Ministry of Finance proposed a defense budget of approximately $278 billion for 2026, a 7% increase compared to 2025.

The pattern extends beyond airspace. A long-endurance PLA Wing Loong 2 drone made at least 23 flights over the South China Sea since August 2025 while transmitting false transponder signals to disguise its identity—the drone flew missions from Hainan toward Taiwan’s Pratas Island while transmitting various fake identities, per ISW-AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan analysis. Signal spoofing by seaborne vessels around Taiwan has been documented since at least August 2025.

What to Watch

March through May represents the optimal weather window for amphibious operations in the Taiwan Strait. Track PLA Eastern Theater Command maintenance cycles and whether the pattern of reduced sorties persists or reverses. Any surge in activity following extended downtime would align with pre-campaign resource conservation.

Monitor TSMC fab utilization rates and any customer inventory shifts. Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem is characterized by acute dependence on energy imports, limited stockpiles of essential materials, and unparalleled concentration of advanced fabrication capacity within TSMC, notes a March 2025 ScienceDirect study. Water and electricity disruptions—whether from drought, grid stress, or conflict—cascade globally within weeks.

The semiconductor onshoring debate is accelerating but remains years from meaningful capacity transfer. Even with a projected 203% increase in U.S. fab capacity by 2032, Taiwan remains the critical node for the most advanced chip production, per Vision of Humanity. TSMC’s Arizona fabs won’t reach volume production of 3nm or more advanced nodes before 2027-2028. Until then, 90% of the world’s most sophisticated logic chips flow through a 180-kilometer strait that China now routinely encircles with live-fire drills.