Geopolitics · · 9 min read

DOJ Trials Link IRGC to Trump Assassination Plot as U.S.-Iran War Escalates

Federal prosecutors air evidence of Iranian state-directed murder-for-hire operations on American soil while widening military conflict enters second week.

A Manhattan terrorism trial proceeding amid the U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iran has exposed testimony directly linking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to a foiled 2024 plot targeting then-candidate Donald Trump, marking the most significant prosecution of Iranian state-sponsored assassination attempts on U.S. soil in over a decade.

FBI agent Jacqueline Smith testified Tuesday that defendant Asif Merchant, a 47-year-old Pakistani national on trial in Brooklyn Federal Court, admitted during a July 2024 interview that he had an IRGC handler named ‘Yousef’ who recruited him for Assassination operations. According to Yahoo News, Merchant’s cousin, who worked for the IRGC, provided $5,000 as a down payment to supposed hitmen — actually undercover FBI agents — with the handler promising to reimburse the funds.

The trial began last week, days before the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and decapitated Iran’s military command structure. Prosecutors introduced evidence showing Merchant’s laptop contained photos of both Trump and then-President Joe Biden, along with searches for Trump rally locations. ‘This trial is happening in interesting times,’ Judge Eric Komitee told lawyers this week, in what may qualify as judicial understatement of the year.

The Prosecution’s Evidence Network

The Merchant case represents one thread in a broader DOJ strategy prosecuting multiple IRGC-linked plots. In November 2024, federal prosecutors charged three men — Farhad Shakeri of Iran, Carlisle Rivera of Brooklyn, and Jonathan Loadholt of Staten Island — in a separate conspiracy targeting Trump and Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad.

Active IRGC Prosecution Cases
Asif Merchant TrialOngoing (Brooklyn)
Shakeri/Rivera/LoadholtTrial set March 9, 2026
Rivera Sentence (Alinejad plot)15 years (Jan 2026)
Shakeri StatusAt large in Tehran

Shakeri, an IRGC asset living in Tehran, hired Rivera — a convicted murderer he met in New York state prison — to kill Alinejad on instructions from high-ranking IRGC members. After earlier plots using Russian mob hitmen failed in 2022, the IRGC turned to Shakeri’s criminal network. Rivera received a 15-year sentence in January 2026 after pleading guilty.

According to Department of Justice filings, Rivera and co-conspirators exchanged voice notes in April 2024 discussing efforts to locate and kill Alinejad, with Rivera noting she was ‘hard to catch, bro’ and referring to ‘the slammer’ — a firearm he obtained for the assassination. Law enforcement recovered a weapon with a partially obliterated serial number from his Brooklyn residence.

IRGC Operational Structure Exposed

The prosecutions reveal an Iranian operational model that exploits existing criminal networks rather than deploying trained intelligence officers. Shakeri immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for robbery. In recent months, he used a network of criminal associates met in prison to supply the IRGC with operatives to conduct surveillance and assassinations.

IRGC-Quds Force Background

The Quds Force, the IRGC’s external operations arm, has between 5,000 and 15,000 personnel handpicked for allegiance to the regime. The United States designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in April 2019. Previous IRGC-QF plots include the 2011 conspiracy to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir by bombing a Washington, D.C. restaurant, which led to federal charges against Mansour Arbabsiar and Quds Force member Gholam Shakuri.

Court testimony indicates Merchant’s IRGC handler instructed him that ‘if he noticed he was being surveilled, he should act normal.’ Defense attorneys challenged the reliability of this testimony, noting the July 2024 FBI interview session wasn’t recorded, and the agents’ report remains sealed, with only a few questions allowed in court.

Diplomatic Collapse to Military Action

The timing of these trials coincides with the catastrophic failure of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. According to NPR, three rounds of indirect talks in Geneva concluded February 26 without agreement, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi describing them as some of the country’s ‘most intense and longest rounds of negotiations.’

Since resuming talks in early 2026, the U.S. demanded Iran dismantle its nuclear infrastructure entirely, limit its ballistic missile arsenal, and cease supporting regional allies. Iran rejected permanent abandonment of uranium enrichment and insisted missiles and proxy support were non-negotiable.

Two days after talks collapsed, the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed along with senior leadership figures in attacks carried out Saturday, with Iranian state media confirming the 86-year-old supreme leader’s death early Sunday. At least 13 top defense officials died including IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and several other commanders.

“I got him before he got me.”

— President Donald Trump, referring to Khamenei’s assassination, ABC News interview March 1, 2026

Trump explicitly linked the strikes to Iranian assassination attempts against him. In his first acknowledgment of personal motive, Trump told ABC News on Sunday: ‘They tried twice. Well, I got him first.’ The comment references the Merchant and Shakeri plots, both allegedly ordered in retaliation for Trump’s January 2020 authorization of a drone strike that killed IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.

Legal Precedent and Geopolitical Stakes

These prosecutions mark the most aggressive U.S. legal action against Iranian state-directed violence since 2011. Four senior IRGC-Quds Force officers were charged in October 2011 for planning to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador in the United States under Soleimani’s supervision. That case set the legal framework now being applied to Trump-era plots.

Key Legal Elements
  • Prosecutors using criminal networks to prove state direction rather than requiring direct IRGC operatives
  • Testimony from imprisoned co-conspirators providing evidence against handlers in Iran
  • Classified Information Procedures Act filings indicate classified evidence will be presented at upcoming trials
  • Charges include material support for Terrorism, sanctions violations, and conspiracy — carrying combined sentences exceeding 60 years

The trials face significant evidentiary challenges. Merchant’s defense team argues the government is ‘trying to wedge evidence into a narrative that doesn’t fit,’ portraying his Iran trips as religious pilgrimages. The fact that key FBI interviews were unrecorded creates potential credibility issues for jury deliberations.

Yet the prosecutions have already yielded concrete results. Rivera was arrested November 7, 2024, before completing his plan to kill Alinejad. Merchant’s trial is expected to conclude within weeks. A separate trial for Shakeri’s network begins March 9, though Shakeri himself remains in Iran beyond U.S. jurisdiction.

What to Watch

The Merchant verdict will test whether prosecutors can successfully convince juries that Iran’s government directly ordered assassinations on U.S. soil using criminal intermediaries — a legal theory critical for future IRGC cases. With Supreme Leader Khamenei dead and Iran’s command structure in disarray, the trials may be the last opportunity to document these specific assassination plots before evidence disappears in Tehran’s chaos.

More immediately, any retaliation against trial witnesses or prosecutors would represent an unprecedented escalation. Iran has already launched missile strikes against U.S. bases in response to Khamenei’s death; extending operations to the U.S. homeland would trigger consequences that make the current military campaign look restrained.

Legal experts will watch whether the government’s use of unrecorded interviews and sealed evidence withstands appellate scrutiny. If Merchant is convicted on testimony about statements he allegedly made to FBI agents with no recording, it sets a precedent for how the U.S. prosecutes foreign intelligence operations when direct evidence from hostile nations is unavailable.

Finally, the outcome determines whether the U.S. criminal justice system can hold accountable state-sponsored terrorism when the sponsoring state is a major geopolitical adversary. A conviction establishes that ordering murders on American soil carries personal consequences even for operatives protected by foreign governments. An acquittal suggests the evidentiary bar for proving state direction may be too high for practical deterrence.