Germany Blocks EU Naval Expansion to Hormuz, Exposing Europe’s Defense Paralysis

Germany ruled out participation in any EU naval mission to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz on March 15, drawing a line under European efforts to present a unified response to Iran’s effective closure of the waterway that carries 20% of global oil.

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told German broadcaster ARD that Berlin sees no immediate need for such an operation and called on the United States and Israel to provide clarity about their objectives in the war on Iran. Wadephul dismissed the effectiveness of the existing EU Operation Aspides in the Red Sea, stating he was “very skeptical” that extending the mission to Hormuz would provide greater security.

The comments landed hours before EU foreign ministers convened in Brussels to discuss expanding Operation Aspides — launched in February 2024 to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea — into the Persian Gulf, according to Euronews. Pressure from Washington has been growing on European and Asian partners to help secure the key oil transit route after energy prices surged following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Oil prices have soared above $100 a barrel, sparking concerns about inflation and weaker growth.

France Acts, Germany Hesitates

Germany’s position stands in sharp contrast to France, which announced it is coordinating with European and non-European states to set up a “purely defensive” escort mission for merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz and is deploying eight frigates and two amphibious assault ships to the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea. French President Emmanuel Macron said the mission would enable commercial ships to safely navigate the strait once the most intense phase of the conflict subsides.

Former French President Francois Hollande said in a television interview that France is the only European country able to carry out such a naval operation, with the British no longer capable of doing so and the Germans unwilling to. The Netherlands and Greece are also contributing vessels to the broader European presence, per USNI News.

Research by the ifo Institute estimates that about 6.2% of the EU’s crude oil imports and 8.7% of its liquefied natural gas imports transit the strait, but European countries are impacted due to their reliance on global markets, with disruptions sending prices ballooning and prompting G7 countries to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves.

Ukraine Fatigue and Parliamentary Constraints

Berlin’s reluctance reflects domestic political constraints that extend beyond the immediate Iran crisis. Wadephul stressed that Germany does not intend to become involved in the Iran war, noting that Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius have made clear: “We will not participate in this conflict.”

Under German law, all armed missions abroad require the approval of the Bundestag, rules that have been set out in the Parliamentary Participation Act since 2005. Germany already supplies significant military aid to Ukraine and has deployed forces to Lithuania as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence, according to Chatham House. German officials have warned that the country is poorly protected from potential air or missile attacks due to the transfer of military systems to Ukraine, particularly Patriot systems, with the problem compounded by recent deployment of remaining systems to protect Poland on NATO’s eastern flank.

The Social Democratic Party, junior partner in Merz’s coalition, remains sharply divided between hawks and doves on military deployments, per the Washington Monthly. While Germany has committed to reaching NATO’s new 5% GDP defense spending target and recently pledged over $2 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine, that momentum has not translated into appetite for new overseas operations outside the NATO area.

The Strategic Autonomy Mirage

The divergence between France and Germany on Hormuz exposes the gap between European rhetoric on Strategic Autonomy and operational reality. Analysts have questioned whether Europe has sufficient political cohesion, military capability, and strategic will to convert ambition into tangible realities, warning that greater autonomy may undermine NATO cohesion or create unrealistic expectations regarding Europe’s ability to act unilaterally in high-intensity conflict scenarios.

Wadephul’s comments echo criticism from Europeans who argue the US has not shared enough information on the war, its timeline or goals. The foreign minister said that the US and Israel aim to destroy Iran’s military capabilities, adding: “And what we now expect is to be told and kept informed, and to be involved once this has happened. And then we would very much like to take part in entering into negotiations.”

The European Defense Fund, with a budget of €7.9 billion over seven years, is dwarfed by the scale of capability gaps revealed by simultaneous crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. The EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program has attracted approximately €38 billion in requests from eight member states against a projected volume of €150 billion, with requirements that at least 65% of contract components originate within Europe.

Energy Security Stakes

Germany’s position is particularly striking given its industrial dependence on stable energy prices. In 2023, Germany imported around 77 million tonnes of crude oil, more than any other EU country. While Germany imports little oil directly from the Gulf, global price spikes hit its manufacturing base and consumer economy.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the country would not ease sanctions on Russia despite potential economic pressure, citing solidarity with Ukraine, and stated Germany would “prepare to endure such a phase if necessary,” adding that the situation would stabilize quickly should the US-Israeli war with Iran end. That calculation assumes a short conflict — US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday the war against Iran would “likely” end in a few weeks — but Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will not allow “a litre of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz and that any vessel linked to the United States, Israel, or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target.”

Transatlantic Misalignment

President Trump wrote on Truth Social that “many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” calling on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to deploy vessels. Germany was conspicuously absent from that list.

Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted the US is increasingly seen by policymakers in Gulf states as a net liability, with “serious questioning of the utility of the US security umbrella,” as the US has now twice dragged Gulf states into a confrontation with Iran they did not want. With Arab Gulf states seeing the United States as an increasingly unreliable partner, the French display of naval power positions France as an additional security provider.

What to Watch

Monday’s EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting will determine whether a subset of member states proceed with Hormuz expansion under enhanced cooperation provisions or whether Aspides remains confined to the Red Sea. France’s proposed mission would comprise EU and non-EU navies and be “strictly peaceful and defensive,” though Iran warned it would attack European “targets” helping the US-Israeli offensive.

Longer-term, Germany’s position tests whether European strategic autonomy can survive divergent threat assessments among major member states. Berlin’s calculus appears to be that Ukraine defense takes priority over Gulf energy security, that the Iran war will end quickly, and that parliamentary constraints prevent open-ended deployments. If any of those assumptions prove wrong, Germany may face a choice between energy price shocks that threaten its industrial base and a belated military commitment that exposes the limits of its Zeitenwende defense pivot.

The Hormuz crisis also accelerates the bifurcation of European defense between a Franco-British axis willing to deploy power and a German-led camp prioritizing territorial defense and alliance obligations. That split will shape EU decision-making for years to come.