Energy Geopolitics · · 7 min read

GM’s $625M Nevada Lithium Bet Targets 2027 Supply as US-China Battery War Intensifies

Thacker Pass joint venture positions Detroit automaker ahead of rivals in domestic EV feedstock race, but production won't arrive until late 2027—leaving a three-year gap as China controls 85% of global battery capacity.

General Motors closed a $625 million joint venture with Lithium Americas in December 2024, securing a 38% stake in Nevada’s Thacker Pass lithium project and locking in 20-year offtake rights as the automaker races to derisk EV battery supply chains amid intensifying US-China competition for critical minerals.

The investment—$430 million in cash plus a $195 million letter of credit—gives GM priority access to domestic lithium carbonate starting in late 2027, when Phase 1 of Thacker Pass targets 40,000 tonnes of annual production. The deal, announced in October 2024, positions GM ahead of Ford and Stellantis in securing long-term domestic feedstock under Inflation Reduction Act incentives that require battery components sourced outside China.

Strategic Context

China produced 72% of global EVs in 2024 and controls 85% of battery manufacturing capacity, according to Congressional Research Service data. IRA Foreign Entity of Concern rules—effective since December 2023—exclude Chinese battery components from full $7,500 tax credit eligibility, accelerating automaker efforts to build non-Chinese Supply Chains.

What GM Gets

The joint venture extends GM’s offtake agreement to 20 years for up to 100% of Phase 1 volumes, with rights to 38% of future Phase 2 production and first refusal on remaining capacity. Combined with a $320 million equity stake purchased in February 2023, GM has now committed $945 million to Thacker Pass—the largest investment by any automaker in US lithium extraction.

Phase 1’s 40,000 tonnes of annual lithium carbonate capacity—sufficient to power roughly 1 million EVs—covers approximately 30% of GM’s projected battery demand as production scales post-2027, per industry estimates. Mechanical completion is targeted for late 2027, with full ramp-up through 2028.

“We’re pleased with the significant progress Lithium Americas is making to help GM achieve our goal to develop a resilient EV material supply chain,” Jeff Morrison, GM’s SVP of global purchasing and supply chain, said in October 2024 statements. “Sourcing critical EV raw materials, like lithium, from suppliers in the U.S., is expected to help us manage battery cell costs, deliver value to our customers and investors, and create jobs.”

Thacker Pass by the Numbers
Phase 1 Capacity40,000 tpa
GM Equity Stake38%
Total GM Investment$945M
DOE Conditional Loan$2.26B
Resource Base6M tonnes LCE

Federal Backing and IRA Leverage

The U.S. Department of Energy awarded a $2.26 billion conditional loan to Lithium Americas in October 2024—$1.97 billion in principal plus $289.7 million in capitalized interest—the largest federal commitment to domestic lithium production. The loan, conditional on the GM joint venture closing, became active in December 2024 and signals Washington’s priority on onshoring battery supply chains.

Thacker Pass sits on North America’s largest known lithium deposit: 385 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources equivalent to 6 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, enough to supply decades of US battery demand at current consumption rates. The clay-based extraction process—distinct from hard-rock mining or brine evaporation—offers faster ramp-up and lower water use, though commercial-scale validation remains ahead as construction accelerates.

Construction employment is ramping to a peak of 1,800 skilled workers by end of 2025, Lithium Americas reported in February 2026, with processing facilities rising and critical equipment arriving daily. “Safety remains our top priority,” CEO Jonathan Evans said in the update. “Lithium market conditions are strengthening just as the project prepares to come online in late 2027.”

February 2023
GM Initial Equity Stake
$320 million investment in Lithium Americas common shares.
October 2024
JV Announcement
GM commits $625M for 38% stake; DOE approves $2.26B conditional loan.
December 2024
JV Close
Transaction finalizes; DOE loan activates; construction accelerates.
Late 2027
Mechanical Completion
Phase 1 targets first production; 40,000 tpa capacity online.
Through 2028
Full Ramp-Up
Production scales to nameplate capacity; GM offtake begins.

Competitive Positioning

GM’s Thacker Pass commitment outpaces rival automakers in domestic lithium exposure. Ford secured 100,000+ metric tons of lithium hydroxide from Albemarle spanning 2026-2030, announced in May 2023, while Stellantis invested over $100 million in California geothermal lithium projects in August 2023. Both deals rely on established suppliers rather than direct equity stakes in greenfield projects.

The timing gap presents risk. North American EV battery manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 1,200 GWh annually by 2030—up from roughly 300 GWh in 2023, per Argonne National Laboratory forecasts—but domestic lithium supply won’t materialize at scale until 2027-2028. That leaves a three-year window where automakers must source from international suppliers or stockpile imports ahead of IRA’s tightening Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions.

“Our relationship with GM has been significantly strengthened with this joint venture as we continue to pursue a mutual goal to develop a robust domestic lithium supply chain by advancing the development of Thacker Pass.”

— Jonathan Evans, President and CEO, Lithium Americas

Global lithium demand is projected to quadruple by 2030 as EV production scales, intensifying competition for non-Chinese sources. IRA regulations require that batteries and components avoid Foreign Entities of Concern—primarily Chinese firms—to qualify for the full $7,500 consumer tax credit. Nearly $100 billion in private-sector investment has flowed into US clean vehicle and battery supply chains since IRA enactment, Treasury data shows, with lithium extraction projects capturing a growing share.

What to Watch

Phase 1 mechanical completion in late 2027 remains the critical milestone—any delays push GM’s domestic supply access into 2029 or beyond, forcing reliance on international sources just as IRA compliance tightens. Phase 2 expansion to 80,000 tonnes per year remains unfunded and dependent on market conditions and Phase 1 execution. GM’s ability to scale EV production toward 1 million units annually will hinge on whether Thacker Pass delivers on schedule, or whether the three-year supply gap forces costly spot-market purchases from non-IRA-compliant sources. Watch for final investment decision updates and construction progress reports through 2026 as the project moves from capital-intensive buildout to commissioning phases.