Iran Signals Conditional Halt to Regional Strikes as Power Balance Complicates Diplomatic Shift
President Pezeshkian's pledge follows eight days of escalating conflict, but IRGC dominance and immediate violations raise questions about Tehran's actual command authority.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced Saturday that Tehran will cease attacks on neighboring countries unless strikes against Iran originate from their territory, a conditional de-escalation pledge issued on day eight of the widest military confrontation between Iran and the United States since 1979.
The Iranian interim leadership council approved the motion Friday, according to Al Jazeera. Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries for strikes that took place in recent days, attributing them to NBC News reports of loss of command and control after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, saying some attacks were carried out because armed forces “acted independently.”
The Credibility Problem
Minutes after Pezeshkian’s recorded message aired, Qatar said it thwarted a missile attack, according to Al Jazeera. The immediate contradiction highlights structural constraints on the president’s authority. In Iran’s constitutional framework, politicians including the president have no say in strategic affairs such as foreign and security policies, with real power concentrated in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Al Jazeera analyst Resul Serdar noted.
The war began February 28 when the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours, killing Khamenei and dozens of senior officials in what both countries describe as a regime-change operation. Iran has responded with over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones targeting Israel and US assets across the Gulf.
All six Gulf Cooperation Council nations—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—have been targeted due to US military presence within or near their borders, according to Al Jazeera and the House of Commons Library. Gulf States have condemned Iranian strikes and accused Iran of breaching the UN charter, saying they reserve the right to respond. Saudi Arabia’s defense minister met with Pakistan’s army chief Saturday to discuss Iranian attacks; the two countries maintain a mutual defense pact defining any attack on either as an attack on both, NPR reported.
Regional Economic Calculus Shifts
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that Gulf exports could halt “within weeks” if war continues, warning that GDP growth worldwide would be impacted and energy prices would rise globally, creating supply chain reactions across manufacturing sectors.
Saudi Arabia destroyed drones targeting its Shaybah oil field and shot down a ballistic missile aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base; Dubai activated air defenses after multiple blasts, briefly suspending all flights at Dubai International Airport, according to NPR. The airport, one of the world’s busiest for international travel, reopened at limited capacity days later, Britannica noted.
“By spreading the conflict to the Gulf, Tehran is doing precisely what Israel could not do alone: steering the war away from the Israeli-Iranian axis and transforming it into a confrontation between Iran and its Arab neighbours.”
— Sultan al-Khulaifi, Centre for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies
Iran made a strategic miscalculation by widening confrontation to include GCC states despite their clear rejection of war and statements they would not allow territory or airspace for operations against Tehran; Iranian projectiles hit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, none of which launched attacks from their territory, Atlantic Council experts noted.
Diplomatic Context and Trump’s Rejection
Pezeshkian’s statement came hours after US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social demanding “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Pezeshkian responded: “They will take that dream to the grave if they think we will surrender unconditionally”, according to Iran International.
US negotiators had offered to lift sanctions, supply nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes, and support a joint civil nuclear program with American investment; in return Iran would permanently dismantle enrichment facilities; the proposals emerged from three rounds of Oman-mediated talks before strikes began, according to Iran International. Oman’s foreign minister said US attacks came when Tehran had signaled readiness for unprecedented nuclear concessions, raising questions about Washington’s characterization of negotiations.
Proxy Network Calculus
Long assumed that regime-change war would trigger allied militias across the Middle East, Hezbollah warned before strikes that Khamenei’s killing would be a red line; Hezbollah launched rocket attacks against Israel over the weekend, spurring Israeli military response in Lebanon, but the broader proxy response has been muted, Foreign Policy reported.
Between October 2023 and February 2024, Iran-backed militias carried out over 170 attacks on US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan; Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces stayed out of the June 2025 12-day conflict, demonstrating “a degree of de facto autonomy” with approximately 200,000 fighters and billions in budget, according to Mara Revkin quoted in Foreign Policy.
What to Watch
Three indicators will determine whether Pezeshkian’s pledge represents genuine policy shift or tactical positioning. First, whether Iranian strikes on Gulf states cease entirely over the next 72 hours—the credibility test Qatar’s interception already challenges. Second, which institution issues Iran’s next major military directive: the interim leadership council or IRGC commanders operating independently. Third, whether Gulf states activate their bilateral defense arrangements; Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s mutual defense pact, which defines attack on either as attack on both, now faces its first operational test.
Pezeshkian said Friday that several countries have begun mediation efforts, stating Iran is “committed to lasting peace in the region” but has “no hesitation in defending our country’s dignity and authority,” without naming which countries initiated ceasefire discussions, according to The Jerusalem Post. The diplomatic opening exists, but whether Iran’s fractured command structure can deliver on Pezeshkian’s commitments remains the central uncertainty for regional stability and global energy markets that have already priced in 15-20 percent risk premiums.