Israel Assassinates Iran’s Supreme Leader After Months of Planning, Gallant Reveals

Israel began planning the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in July 2023, more than 18 months before executing the joint U.S.-Israeli strike that killed the 86-year-old leader on February 28, 2026, according to former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Writing in his Substack newsletter, Gallant disclosed that planning commenced while he served as defense minister, with the first requirement being the dismantlement of Iran’s air defense systems—a task “methodically achieved through strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian air defenses in 2024.”

The revelation transforms understanding of what U.S. and Israeli officials initially framed as responsive action into a long-premeditated regime decapitation operation. Khamenei was killed on February 28 as part of a series of Israeli airstrikes around Tehran; his death was confirmed by the Iranian government on March 1. About a dozen members of Khamenei’s family and close entourage, along with 40 other senior Iranian leaders, died in the Saturday attacks, according to Israeli military officials.

Intelligence Architecture

The operation relied on penetration Israel has built over years. According to the Financial Times, Israel hacked into Tehran’s traffic cameras to surveil senior Iranian figures and map out a “life pattern” for Khamenei, including travel routes and hours of activity. Israeli intelligence used artificial intelligence tools and algorithms to sort through vast amounts of information gathered about the Iranian leadership.

The CIA had gathered information about a Saturday morning meeting that would include Khamenei and the country’s senior military cadre, according to The New York Times. The CIA provided a human source to certify the exact location where Khamenei was set to be on the day of his Assassination. On Friday afternoon at 3:38 p.m. Eastern Time, Trump gave the order, saying “Operation Epic Fury is approved,” according to Gen. Dan Caine.

Strategic Timing

The strike occurred despite ongoing nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believed the talks were doomed to fail, and Israel made clear there was never going to be enough common ground to reach a deal acceptable to Netanyahu, who had lobbied vociferously against the previous Iran nuclear agreement.

A previous attempt to assassinate Khamenei by Israel during the Twelve-Day War on June 15, 2025 was vetoed by Trump, according to unnamed U.S. officials. What changed between June 2025 and February 2026 remains unclear, though Netanyahu presented Trump with fresh intelligence about Iran’s military capabilities at a meeting on February 11, 2026.

Regional Escalation

The assassination triggered immediate retaliation. Iran launched dozens of drones and ballistic missiles throughout the Persian Gulf at targets in Israel and U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. On March 2, Hezbollah began launching strikes on Israel in response to Khamenei’s killing, prompting Israeli strikes in Beirut.

Markets reacted swiftly to the unfolding conflict. The conflict disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent Crude prices to rise from around $70 to over $80 per barrel within days. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard declared Wednesday it has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, halting most vessel traffic, with oil prices rising by 12% since the start of the war.

Succession Crisis

Under the Iranian constitution, the next Supreme Leader will be chosen by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, an elected body with members vetted by the Guardian Council, most of whom were conservatives aligned with Khamenei following Iran’s 2024 elections. Iranian authorities announced a three-member leadership council to temporarily lead the country: President Masoud Pezeshkian, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, and a member of the Guardian Council.

Israel has made its position on succession clear. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Wednesday that “any leader selected by the Iranian terror regime to continue leading the plan for Israel’s destruction will be a certain target for assassination, no matter his name or where he hides.” On Tuesday, the Israeli air force struck the building housing Iran’s Council of Experts in Qom—the body with authority to appoint a new supreme leader—while votes were being counted.

Strategic Objectives

Gallant’s disclosure reveals a sequential logic to Israeli planning. “The sequence unfolding now follows a logic that those of us in the defense establishment have long understood,” he wrote. “First, you strike fleeting and mobile targets: military and political leadership, weapons scientists, command and control nodes. These are the targets that disappear if you wait.”

In an eight-minute video statement, Trump said the purpose of the U.S. strikes in Iran was effectively regime change, citing Iran’s “menacing activities,” the Iran hostage crisis, support for proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, killings of protesters, and alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The scale of ongoing operations suggests no immediate de-escalation. The Israeli military said it attacked Tehran in the tenth wave of strikes since the conflict began, with Trump claiming Iran’s military installations had been essentially “knocked out,” while U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation is still in its “early days.”

What to Watch

Leadership transition: The Assembly of Experts must select a new Supreme Leader while under threat of Israeli strikes. Any candidate faces immediate assassination risk according to Israel’s stated policy.

Strait of Hormuz: A prolonged closure would likely lead to oil prices crossing $100 per barrel, with Brent already up almost 10% since the conflict broke out to around $80 per barrel. Analysts warn disruption could persist for weeks.

Regional proxy response: Hezbollah has already opened a second front in Lebanon. The extent to which Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis escalate attacks on U.S. and allied targets will determine whether the conflict remains contained or expands into a broader regional war.

Nuclear facilities: The UN’s nuclear watchdog has countered U.S. and Israeli claims that Iran was days or weeks away from having atomic weapons, and U.S. intelligence suggests Iran would need until 2035 to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile if it chose to pursue one. The actual damage to Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear.

Domestic instability: Trump and Netanyahu have called for Iranian regime change and urged citizens to “take to the streets.” Whether Khamenei’s death catalyzes mass protests or consolidates support for the Islamic Republic will shape the conflict’s trajectory.