Israel Launches 100 Strikes on Lebanon Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire Takes Effect
The largest single-wave operation of the war exposes a fatal ambiguity in the ceasefire framework as Netanyahu declares Lebanon excluded from the truce.
Israel executed 100 airstrikes across Lebanon in 10 minutes on April 8, striking Hezbollah targets in Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley just hours after a US-Iran ceasefire took effect—the largest single-wave operation in the current escalation cycle.
The campaign killed hundreds and overwhelmed Lebanese hospitals, according to Al Jazeera, which reported the health minister described facilities as struggling to manage casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated explicitly that the two-week ceasefire negotiated between Washington and Tehran does not apply to Lebanon, contradicting statements from Pakistan—the ceasefire mediator—that the agreement covers “Lebanon and elsewhere.”
The Ceasefire That Wasn’t
The US-Iran agreement announced April 7 suspended all attacks for two weeks and reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Tehran agreed to allow safe transit through the waterway, which handles 20% of global oil supplies, per CNBC. Oil Markets responded immediately: WTI crude fell 16.3% to $94.55 per barrel and Brent lost 13.8% to $94.13 by 6:11 AM ET on April 8.
Netanyahu’s office issued a statement Wednesday morning expressing support for the US decision to suspend strikes on Iran but clarifying that Israel’s military operations in Lebanon would continue. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir reinforced the message: “We will continue striking the Hezbollah terror organization and will utilize every operational opportunity.”
The disconnect between diplomatic messaging and ground reality suggests three possibilities: the ceasefire framework deliberately excluded Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, the agreement lacks enforcement mechanisms to bind Israeli actions, or one party is openly violating terms that were understood to be comprehensive. Pakistan’s mediation role now faces credibility damage if its characterisation of the ceasefire scope proves inaccurate.
“The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon.”
— Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister
Hezbollah’s Red Line
A Hezbollah official told The National that continued Israeli operations would nullify any regional commitment to the ceasefire: “If the Israeli enemy does not adhere to a ceasefire, then no party will commit to it, and there will be a response from the region, including Iran.” The statement frames Lebanon as a tripwire for broader Iranian retaliation, despite Tehran’s public messaging that it achieved “nearly all the objectives of the war” through the ceasefire.
Israel has killed more than 1,530 people in Lebanon since the conflict escalated, including over 100 women and 130 children, and displaced 1.2 million. Lebanon’s economy minister estimates the war has cost 5-7% of GDP in five weeks. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signalled that operations would intensify, stating of Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem: “His turn will come.”
Energy Markets and the False Peace Premium
The 16% crude price collapse assumes durable Strait reopening and de-escalation—assumptions now threatened by Israel’s unilateral military campaign. Before the ceasefire announcement, WTI crude traded at $112.41 and Brent at $109.77 on April 5. The market priced in a return to pre-conflict transit volumes through the Strait before disruptions began February 28.
If Hezbollah or Iran retaliates for the April 8 strikes, the Strait becomes vulnerable again despite the ceasefire framework. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated Wednesday that its forces remain “on the trigger,” ready to respond to “the slightest mistake” by Israel. The language suggests Tehran views Israeli actions in Lebanon as outside the scope of the bilateral US-Iran agreement but reserves the right to redefine that boundary.
Between November 2024 and February 2026, UNIFIL recorded more than 10,000 Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and 1,400 military activities inside Lebanese territory during the previous ceasefire period—an average of 70 airspace violations and 10 ground operations per week. The pattern suggests Israeli military doctrine treats Lebanon as a continuous operational theatre regardless of diplomatic agreements.
Domestic and Regional Calculations
Netanyahu faces elections and has consistently used Lebanon operations to demonstrate resolve to right-wing voters. The timing of the 100-strike campaign—executed in daylight, with maximum visibility—suggests messaging as much to domestic constituencies as to Hezbollah. The scale of the operation, however, introduces strategic risk: if Hezbollah or Iran responds, Israel owns the escalation despite the ceasefire framework that could have provided two weeks of operational pause.
Pakistan’s role as mediator now faces a credibility test. If Islamabad presented the ceasefire to Tehran as covering Lebanon, and Israel contradicts that understanding within hours, the foundation for Friday’s scheduled negotiations in Islamabad becomes unstable. President Trump received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he characterised as “a workable basis on which to negotiate,” but Netanyahu’s actions suggest Israel did not agree to limit operations as part of that framework.
What to Watch
Friday’s Islamabad negotiations will clarify whether the ceasefire framework can survive the Lebanon exclusion or collapses under the weight of conflicting interpretations. Hezbollah’s operational response in the next 48 hours determines whether this remains a localised Israeli campaign or triggers the regional retaliation the group has threatened. Oil markets will reprice risk if any party closes the Strait again or if strikes resume on Iranian energy infrastructure.
The operational tempo in Lebanon provides the earliest signal: if Israel sustains the 100-strike pace, Hezbollah’s threshold for retaliation compresses. If strikes pause after Wednesday’s campaign, Netanyahu may be testing how much space the ceasefire framework provides for limited operations before Iran or Hezbollah respond. Either way, the largest single-wave bombing of the war occurred not during active conflict but hours after a peace agreement took effect—a contradiction that defines the agreement’s fragility.