Pentagon Delays Japan Tomahawk Delivery by Two Years, Prioritizing Iran War Over Indo-Pacific Deterrence
US defense industrial capacity constraints force strategic choice between Middle East operations and allied commitments as Japan's $2.35 billion missile order pushed to 2028.
The Pentagon has informed Japan of a two-year delay in delivering approximately 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, pushing the delivery timeline to 2028 at the earliest as the US prioritizes replenishing stockpiles depleted by the Iran war over allied commitments in the Indo-Pacific.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth notified Japanese counterpart Shinjiro Koizumi of the delay in early May 2026, according to Financial Times reporting. The original delivery timeline called for Japan to receive the missiles by March 2028 under a $2.35 billion contract signed in 2024—one of the largest foreign purchases of the system. The new 42-month production timeline means deliveries may not begin until 2028 and likely extend beyond that date.
The delay exposes a strategic trilemma: the US cannot simultaneously maintain Indo-Pacific deterrence, fulfill allied commitments, and sustain Middle East operations given current Defense Industrial Base constraints. Japan’s Tomahawk order represents a centerpiece of its post-WWII shift toward long-range offensive strike capability to counter China and North Korea, making the postponement a direct blow to regional deterrence architecture at a moment of heightened tension in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
850+
~4,000
100
110
Iran War Consumes Quarter of US Stockpile in Months
US forces fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles in Operation Epic Fury against Iran beginning in late February 2026, according to CBS News. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates total expenditure exceeded 1,000 missiles—roughly a quarter to a third of the entire US stockpile, which included about 4,000 missiles across all variants before the conflict.
The consumption rate dwarfs production capacity. RTX, the sole manufacturer, produced approximately 100 new missiles in 2025 while upgrading 240 older models to Block V standard, per Japan Times reporting. The US Navy will receive only 110 Tomahawks in fiscal 2026, according to Interesting Engineering—a figure that highlights the structural gap between operational usage and industrial output.
RTX and the Pentagon concluded a seven-year agreement in February 2026 to increase annual output beyond 1,000 missiles, but ramping production takes years. Manufacturing Tomahawks requires specialized components, many sourced from single suppliers with limited surge capacity. Honeywell Aerospace Technologies announced a $500 million investment in missile component production under a multiyear DoD framework on May 22, but those capacity additions will not affect near-term deliveries.
“Despite repeated promises from top administration officials that they would prioritize Asia, the Pentagon is now giving precedence to the Middle East. Given the lengthy timelines for munitions production, Asian allies and partners will continue to feel the impact of the Iran war long after it ends.”
— Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow for Asian Security, American Enterprise Institute
Japan Reassesses Military Procurement Amid China Tensions
Japan approved a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen ($58 billion) for fiscal 2026—a 9.4% increase from the prior year—as part of a historic military buildup aimed at deterring China, PBS News reported in December 2025. The Tomahawk acquisition was central to Japan’s strategy of acquiring counter-strike capabilities that could hold adversary targets at risk, particularly Chinese military infrastructure and North Korean missile sites.
The delay forces Tokyo to reconsider procurement strategies. Japan has limited domestic alternatives for long-range land-attack cruise missiles. While the country is developing indigenous capabilities, those programs remain years from operational deployment. The timing is particularly damaging: China has intensified military activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea throughout 2026, including record numbers of warplane incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone.
“Japan is already deeply disappointed by the delays in the delivery of the systems it has paid for, including Tomahawk,” an analyst at The Asia Group told Financial Times. The perception that Washington prioritizes Middle East operations over Indo-Pacific security commitments erodes the credibility of US extended deterrence guarantees—the foundation of Japan’s defense posture since 1945.
Tomahawk production involves over 100 specialized components with single-source suppliers. RTX’s Tucson facility, the only production line, operated at roughly 8-9 missiles per month in 2025. Scaling to the target rate of 1,000+ annually requires multiyear investments in tooling, workforce training, and supplier capacity—investments that cannot retroactively fill the stockpile gap created by the Iran war.
Allied Burden-Shifting Becomes Explicit Policy
Japan is not alone. Germany, the Netherlands, and other US allies face similar delays on Tomahawk orders as the Pentagon prioritizes domestic stockpile restoration. The pattern signals a shift from rhetorical burden-sharing appeals to explicit burden-shifting: allies must accept degraded capabilities while the US focuses resources on its own operational priorities.
This dynamic undermines the integrated deterrence framework that US Indo-Pacific Strategy documents have emphasized since 2021. If allies cannot rely on contracted weapons deliveries during peacetime, the credibility of wartime munitions sharing and coalition operations comes into question. The erosion is measurable: Japan’s delivery delay represents 400 missiles that will not be available for regional contingencies until 2028 or later, precisely the period when strategic competition with China is expected to peak.
The defense industrial base constraints also limit US options in simultaneous crises. If a Taiwan Strait contingency emerged before Tomahawk stockpiles recover, the US would face stark choices: draw down reserves to support Japan and regional partners, or conserve munitions for direct US involvement. Neither option provides the margin of superiority that deterrence requires.
What to Watch
RTX’s production ramp timeline will determine whether the two-year delay holds or extends further. If the company cannot reach target output rates by 2027, Japan’s delivery window could slip into 2029. Monitor quarterly production data and Pentagon procurement reports for early indicators.
Japan’s response will signal whether US allies accept capability gaps or pursue alternatives. Tokyo could accelerate indigenous missile programs, seek interim solutions from European suppliers, or publicly criticize US reliability—each option carries strategic implications for the alliance structure.
The Iran war’s duration matters directly. If operations extend beyond 2026, additional stockpile drawdowns will compound the production deficit and delay allied deliveries further. Conversely, a swift resolution would allow prioritization of export commitments, though restoring US stockpiles will likely take precedence.
Finally, watch for similar delays affecting other US allies and weapons systems. If the pattern extends beyond Tomahawks to air defense interceptors, HIMARS rockets, or artillery shells, it confirms a broader strategic choice: the US is willing to degrade allied deterrence capabilities to sustain its own operational tempo—a choice with consequences that will outlast any single conflict.