Pentagon Plans Ground Seizure of Iranian Uranium as Crisis Shifts from Containment to Resource Control

The Trump administration is actively evaluating plans to deploy US special operations forces and ground troops to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile directly from underground facilities, according to Pentagon planning documents—a categorical shift from air campaigns to offensive resource extraction that would mark the first US ground combat operations in the crisis.

The operation under consideration would target approximately 440 kilograms of 60%-enriched Uranium stored at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow facilities, per CBS News. That quantity represents enough fissile material for roughly 10 Nuclear weapons if further enriched to weapons-grade levels. Unlike the June 2025 airstrikes that damaged surface infrastructure, the uranium itself remains buried 80 to 90 meters underground in reinforced tunnels—too deep for conventional penetration munitions.

Operational Complexity Beyond Air Campaign Scope

Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled the shift in congressional briefings earlier this month, stating that “people are going to have to go and get it” when discussing Iran’s uranium stockpile, though he did not specify which nation’s forces would conduct the extraction, according to Axios. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the option remains under active consideration: “It’s an option on the table for him.”

Pentagon planners are preparing deployment scenarios for 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division plus two Marine Expeditionary Units, CNBC reported on March 26. The Isfahan facility alone would require over 1,000 troops for extended operations to penetrate tunnel networks, secure the site against Iranian ground forces, and extract uranium casks weighing several tons, per military experts cited by CNN.

Strait Blockade Transforms Strategic Calculus

The uranium seizure planning unfolds against Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March 4, which has collapsed oil transits from 20 million barrels per day to near-zero through 21 documented attacks on merchant vessels, according to International Energy Agency data. Brent crude spiked to $126 per barrel on March 8 before settling to $92 as of March 30—still 30% above pre-crisis levels.

The International Energy Agency estimates the disruption removed 8 million barrels per day from global supply in March, the largest supply shock in oil market history. Fertilizer prices have risen 50% since the crisis began, with one-third of global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait during spring planting season.

Military Risk Assessment: Uncertain Success, Certain Casualties

Arms control experts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of complete uranium removal even if forces successfully penetrate the facilities. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security noted that Iran would likely retain residual nuclear capability even after a successful extraction, cited in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The operation would require specialized MC-130J cargo aircraft to transport uranium casks under combat conditions, followed by transfer to International Atomic Energy Agency custody—procedures that remain undeveloped for hostile extraction scenarios, per CSIS analysis. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces maintain active defense of all nuclear sites despite February’s decapitation strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Uranium Market Volatility Reflects Supply Uncertainty

Uranium spot prices ended February at $86.95 per pound, down from $94.28 a month earlier but still up 33% year-over-year, according to Cameco data published by the American Nuclear Society. The potential removal of Iran’s stockpile from global nuclear fuel calculations—whether through military seizure or destruction—introduces supply uncertainty into a market already constrained by production limitations and rising demand from new reactor construction.

The broader strategic implications extend beyond nuclear proliferation. Gulf states have accelerated civilian nuclear programs in response to Iran’s enrichment advances, creating a regional cascade effect. Secondary sanctions on nations maintaining trade with Iran have strained alliance relationships, particularly with India and China, which have sought workarounds to Iranian oil restrictions.

What to Watch

Pentagon deployment orders for the 82nd Airborne and Marine Expeditionary Units will signal whether ground operations proceed beyond planning stages. Watch for shifts in Strait of Hormuz transit data—any reopening would reduce pressure for ground escalation, while sustained closure increases likelihood of expanded military objectives including potential seizure of Kharg Island oil facilities. Congressional authorization debates will reveal Republican cohesion on troop commitments; early signs suggest institutional fracture between traditional interventionists and restraint-oriented factions. Uranium spot price volatility will reflect market assessment of seizure probability—sustained moves above $95 per pound would indicate traders pricing in actual supply disruption rather than speculative risk. Finally, IAEA statements on custody protocols for seized nuclear material will clarify international legal framework, or lack thereof, for offensive extraction operations.