SpaceX IPO Could Deliver ‘Tesla Volatility on Steroids,’ Analyst Warns
PitchBook's Franco Granda calls $1.75 trillion valuation 'justifiable' but cautions investors to prepare for 'Musk-amplified volatility' as the largest IPO in history targets a June listing.
SpaceX is preparing a confidential filing for what would become the largest initial public offering in history, with analyst Franco Granda of PitchBook warning that the stock could experience trading swings far exceeding Tesla’s notorious volatility—a dynamic he describes as “Musk-amplified volatility.”
According to Teslarati, SpaceX is reportedly preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering as soon as March, with the filing paving the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. The IPO value could be achieved if investors take a three- to five-year investment horizon and are tolerant of what Franco Granda, a senior analyst at PitchBook, called “Musk-amplified Volatility,” with the prospect of raising as much as $50 billion in fresh capital to fund Starship development, Starlink expansion, and space-based AI infrastructure.
According to PitchBook’s initiation report, at nearly 95x their 2025 revenue estimate of $16 billion, the valuation is rich but not irrational, with sum-of-the-parts analysis placing fair value between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion. The comparison to Tesla is deliberate: Tesla stock has experienced 150-day historical volatility exceeding 43% and options with implied volatility routinely above 50%, according to market data—a level that has made it one of the most heavily traded and speculated stocks in modern markets.
Starlink Drives Revenue, But Fundamentals Raise Questions
Starlink generated an estimated $10.6 billion in revenue and $5.8 billion in EBITDA in 2025 at a 54% margin, accounting for over two-thirds of total SpaceX revenue, having doubled its subscriber base for two consecutive years to reach 9.2 million across 150+ countries, according to PitchBook. The satellite internet unit now dwarfs SpaceX’s legacy launch services business, transforming the company from a rocket manufacturer into a telecommunications operator with subscription-based cash flows.
By the end of 2025, Starlink reported 9.2 million active subscribers, effectively doubling its user base in 15 months, with the business unit surpassing $10 billion in revenue last year, according to SatNews, and analysts from Quilty Space and Bloomberg projecting 2026 revenues between $15.9 billion and $24 billion. Yet the 95x sales multiple would place SpaceX far above Tesla’s peak valuation ratios and in line with speculative software-as-a-service companies trading on future growth rather than current earnings.
At a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would immediately have a larger market cap than all but five of the companies traded in the S&P 500 index, according to Teslarati, placing it ahead of Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. by market capitalization, trailing only a small group of mega-cap firms such as Apple Inc.
The Tesla Parallel: Retail Frenzy Meets Fundamental Uncertainty
Tesla’s stock history offers a preview of what SpaceX investors might face. Tesla has become synonymous with retail investor fascination, dramatic intraday swings, and prolonged periods where valuation multiples detached from traditional automotive fundamentals. The stock has experienced single-day moves exceeding 10% dozens of times, with options volume routinely surpassing that of larger-cap peers.
“The valuation becomes progressively easier to justify over a 5-7 year horizon as Starship commercializes and the direct-to-cell business scales, with returns driven by milestone execution rather than near-term earnings.”
— Franco Granda, Senior Analyst, PitchBook
SpaceX introduces additional layers of complexity. The company operates in a capital-intensive, regulatory-dependent industry with binary execution risk around Starship—a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket still in testing. SpaceX is expected to execute a major test launch of its next-generation Starship vehicle in late March, according to SatNews, with a successful orbital mission providing the technical validation required to secure institutional backing for the June IPO.
SpaceX’s February 2026 acquisition of xAI transforms its public market narrative from a rockets-and-internet company into a deeply integrated AI-and-space-infrastructure platform, according to PitchBook, exactly the profile the market is currently paying the highest premiums for, though the financial contribution from xAI will be incremental in the early years. This merger adds another speculative layer: xAI’s vision of orbital data centers powered by solar energy and serviced by Starship remains technologically unproven and years from commercialization.
Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. are reportedly positioned for senior roles in the transaction, according to Teslarati, with SpaceX also considering a dual-class structure that would allow insiders, including Musk, to retain enhanced voting control.
Institutional Caution vs. Retail Enthusiasm
According to IG UK, early trading in large IPOs is often volatile, valuations at listing can reflect hype as much as fundamentals, and the gap between a company’s story and its financial reality has a habit of narrowing once public market scrutiny is applied. SpaceX’s dual-class share structure would insulate Musk from activist pressure but could exacerbate volatility by limiting institutional investors’ ability to influence corporate governance during periods of underperformance.
The retail appeal is undeniable. Musk’s track record with Tesla, the cultural cachet of space exploration, and the Starlink brand’s global visibility position SpaceX to attract the same speculative trading crowd that drove Tesla’s meme-stock phase. Options markets are likely to see explosive volume, particularly around Starship test milestones and quarterly subscriber updates.
- 95x sales multiple assumes flawless Starship execution and sustained 50% revenue growth
- Starlink’s 9.2 million subscribers face competitive pressure from Amazon’s Project Kuiper
- xAI integration adds AI narrative appeal but introduces near-term cash burn
- Dual-class structure concentrates control with Musk, limiting shareholder influence
- Volatile stock likely to trade on momentum and milestones rather than quarterly earnings
What to Watch
The March confidential filing will reveal SpaceX’s actual financials for the first time, ending years of speculation about profitability, cash flow, and capital intensity. Investors should focus on three metrics: Starlink’s subscriber acquisition cost and churn rate, which will determine the sustainability of its growth trajectory; Starship’s flight cadence and payload economics, which underpin the entire bull case for cost reduction; and xAI’s revenue contribution and integration roadmap, which will clarify whether the AI narrative is strategic synergy or financial distraction.
If the IPO proceeds at $1.75 trillion, early volatility is guaranteed. The question is whether SpaceX’s fundamentals can support that valuation over a multi-year horizon—or whether, like Tesla before it, the stock becomes a battleground between believers in Musk’s vision and skeptics demanding proof of sustainable profitability. For now, the only certainty is that the ride will be anything but smooth.