Commodities
Markets Are Mispricing Iran War Risk, Brooks Warns
The Brookings economist argues that financial markets significantly underestimate the potential for economic disruption from the Iran conflict, as Brent crude surges 14% and strategic chokepoints close.
Iran Conflict Shuts Strait of Hormuz, Sends Fertiliser Prices Soaring as Food Shortage Warnings Mount
Military strikes in the Persian Gulf have effectively closed a waterway handling one-third of global fertiliser trade, triggering price spikes and warnings of crop shortfalls during critical Northern Hemisphere planting season.
China’s Private Sector Factory Surge Hits Five-Year High as Divergence With Official Data Widens
Caixin PMI jumps to 52.1 in February, fastest expansion since December 2020, while state data shows contraction—a split that complicates PBOC policy calculus and signals uneven recovery.
JPMorgan Maps $120 Oil Scenario as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Freezes
The bank maintains a $60 base case for 2026 but warns military escalation and chokepoint closures could double prices, with spare capacity concentrated in conflict zones.
Sudan’s Gum Arabic Trade Fuels Both Sides of War, Undermining Peace
The obscure resin that stabilizes Coca-Cola and M&Ms generates millions for the RSF and SAF militias, creating perverse incentives to prolong the world's worst humanitarian crisis.
London Court Awards Trafigura $700 Million in Nickel Fraud Case Against Indian Tycoon
Judge ruled Indian businessman Prateek Gupta orchestrated 'fraud on a grand scale,' marking one of the largest awards in commodities litigation and signaling tougher scrutiny of India's trading networks.