Iran War

Breaking Energy Geopolitics

UAE Exits OPEC After 60 Years, Stripping Cartel of Second-Largest Spare Capacity

The withdrawal removes a core pillar of production discipline as the organization struggles to enforce 2 million bpd cuts amid Iran war-driven price volatility.

7 min read ·
Breaking Energy Macro

US inflation hits 3-year high as Iran war energy shock forces Fed into policy paralysis

March PCE jumps to 3.5% on oil surge while growth slows to 2%, creating stagflation dilemma that prevents both rate cuts and hikes

8 min read ·
Geopolitics Macro

Dallas Fed models Iran war’s stagflation trap: oil at $167 pushes inflation past 4% as rate-cut path closes

Federal Reserve scenario analysis quantifies how Strait of Hormuz closure transmits to U.S. inflation through energy shocks and supply chains, eliminating room for rate cuts despite growth risks.

8 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

US Extends Russia Oil Waiver After Treasury Chief Ruled It Out 48 Hours Earlier

Trump administration reversed Bessent's sanctions pledge as Iran war pressures fracture Western energy policy coordination.

7 min read ·
Geopolitics Macro

Pentagon Taps GM, Ford for Weapons Production as Iran War Drains Stockpiles

Defense officials mobilize civilian automakers to address industrial capacity crisis exposed by sustained Middle East operations and depleted missile inventories.

6 min read ·
Breaking Geopolitics Macro

Trump Threatens to Fire Powell as May 15 Showdown Tests Fed Independence

President's ultimatum to Fed chair sets up constitutional clash over central bank autonomy amid inflation pressures and institutional credibility crisis.

8 min read ·
Macro Markets

Rogoff Warns Markets Mispricing Dollar Crash Risk as Geopolitical Tail Scenarios Multiply

Harvard economist flags 20% overvaluation and 'naive' assumptions on Iran war duration as structural risks to USD strength and central bank policy divergence.

6 min read ·
Macro Markets

March Jobs Beat Masks Labor Market Decay as Oil Shock Locks Fed in Stagflation Trap

178,000 payrolls crushed expectations, but falling participation and wage deceleration collide with a historic energy crisis that erases any path to rate cuts.

7 min read ·
Energy Macro

Fed Trapped as Energy Shock Meets Sticky Inflation

March CPI data will test whether Powell can anchor expectations as geopolitical oil premium embeds in headline inflation and core refuses to budge.

8 min read ·
Breaking Geopolitics Markets

First U.S. Fighter Loss Shatters Air-Dominance Claims as Oil Markets Price $200 Crude Scenario

Iran downs F-15E over Tehran with crew member still missing, triggering active special forces rescue and exposing the Strait of Hormuz blockade as the conflict's decisive economic weapon.

8 min read ·
Breaking Geopolitics

US formally reevaluates NATO membership as allied airspace denials mount

Ambassador's statement marks first official acknowledgment of structural review, converging with Austria, Spain, and Italy restrictions on Iran war support.

7 min read ·
Breaking Energy Geopolitics

Oil Hits $113 as Trump’s Iran Speech Offers No Exit, Triggering Stagflation Repricing

President's escalation threats send crude soaring and equities tumbling, crystallizing Fed's inflation-versus-growth dilemma.

7 min read ·