Iran

Macro Markets

The Fed’s $110 Oil Problem

Markets are pricing two rate cuts by summer. Oil just crossed $100. One forecast will prove catastrophically wrong.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics

The Alliance Dividend: Why Transactional Geopolitics Can’t Replace Democratic Partnerships

As Iran crisis tests coordinated response and hemispheric realignment sidelines major democracies, U.S. faces hard questions about what it loses when alliances become purely transactional.

9 min read ·
The Wire Daily

Oil at $91, Grid Collapse, and Diplomatic Fractures as Three Crises Test European Security Architecture

From Tehran's civilian infrastructure damage to Cuba's energy paralysis, today's developments expose the fragility of international rules and the acceleration of geopolitical fragmentation.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics Technology

Digital Siege: How Iranians Are Using Technology to Survive Inside the Blackout

One week into the war, 90 million people are cut off at 1% connectivity - but citizens are routing through Starlink, Telegram, and VPNs to document strikes and reach family abroad.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics Macro

U.S. Intelligence Assessment Deems Iran Regime Change ‘Unlikely’ Despite Active Military Campaign

Classified National Intelligence Council report contradicts Trump administration's stated goals as energy markets weigh deterrence policy over supply disruption.

8 min read ·
Breaking Geopolitics

Explosion at US Embassy in Oslo Extends Pattern of Attacks on American Diplomatic Posts

Norwegian police confirm blast at consular entrance with no injuries, as incident adds to wave of embassy security events across NATO and Gulf states.

8 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Iran Intensifies Internal Security Warnings as Gulf Crisis Deepens

Tehran's heightened espionage rhetoric and crackdown measures signal regime vulnerability amid ongoing strikes and energy chokepoint paralysis.

8 min read ·
Geopolitics

Iran Launches Preemptive Strikes on Kurdish Bases as Ground Offensive Threat Escalates

Tehran strikes opposition positions in Iraq as CIA-backed Kurdish forces prepare cross-border campaign that could open new front in US-Israeli war.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics

Dahieh Evacuation: Israel Orders 500,000 From Beirut Suburbs as Regional War Spreads

Israeli strikes and mass displacement orders across Lebanon have killed 217 and displaced over 110,000 as Hezbollah re-enters a broader U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics

Iran Signals Conditional Halt to Regional Strikes as Power Balance Complicates Diplomatic Shift

President Pezeshkian's pledge follows eight days of escalating conflict, but IRGC dominance and immediate violations raise questions about Tehran's actual command authority.

8 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Tehran Strikes Expose Civilian Infrastructure Damage as Oil Hits $91

Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran have killed over 1,300 people and hit schools, hospitals, and historic sites, while satellite imagery reveals extensive targeting of police stations in dense urban areas—raising legal questions as crude prices surge to their highest level since late 2022.

9 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia Accelerates Iran Diplomacy as Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Vision 2030

Riyadh deploys backchannels to contain US-Israel war with Iran, shielding $2 trillion economic transformation from regional spillover.

9 min read ·