Iran

Geopolitics

Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Warner Contradicts White House on Iran Threat

Gang of Eight member states there was no imminent threat from Tehran, undercutting Trump administration's central justification for military strikes.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics Macro

Iran-Israel War Threatens Macro Stability Through Oil Shock, Inflation Risk

Escalating conflict pushes Brent crude past $79 as Federal Reserve faces renewed inflation pressure amid growth concerns.

8 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Europe Gas Crisis Returns as Iran Conflict Drives Prices to €46/MWh

Qatar halts LNG production after Iranian strikes on Gulf energy hubs, sending European TTF futures up 45% and exposing the continent's persistent dependence on volatile global supply chains.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics Macro

ECB’s Lane Warns Iran Conflict Could Trigger Eurozone Stagflation

Chief economist says prolonged Middle East war threatens substantial inflation spike and sharp output drop as oil prices surge 10% amid Strait of Hormuz disruption.

8 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Iranian Drone Strike Closes Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura Refinery as Gulf Energy Infrastructure Enters Attack Radius

A precision drone strike forced the shutdown of a 550,000-barrel-per-day refinery as Tehran expands retaliation beyond military targets, exposing the vulnerability of critical oil infrastructure and pushing Brent crude toward $80.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics

Britain Denies State of War After Iranian Drone Strikes Sovereign Cyprus Base

RAF Akrotiri hit by Shahed drone in first attack on British sovereign soil since 1986, exposing NATO's grey zone and London's precarious position in expanding US-Iran conflict.

9 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Israel Shuts Leviathan Gas Field Amid Iran Conflict, Threatening Mediterranean Supply Chains

Chevron halted production at the 1.2 bcf/d field following government order, cutting 60% of Israel's gas output and disrupting exports to Egypt and Jordan as regional energy infrastructure faces mounting security risks.

8 min read ·
Geopolitics

Pakistan Deploys Army After 24 Killed in Pro-Iran Protests Over Khamenei Assassination

Violence erupts across major ally as Shia minority reacts to U.S.-Israeli strikes, exposing Pakistan's strategic dilemma between Washington and Tehran.

9 min read ·
Energy Geopolitics

Iran Crisis Exposes China’s Energy Achilles Heel as Oil Hits $79

Strait of Hormuz disruption forces Beijing to confront decade of vulnerability despite 1.5 billion barrel strategic reserve.

8 min read ·
Energy Markets

JPMorgan Maps $120 Oil Scenario as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Freezes

The bank maintains a $60 base case for 2026 but warns military escalation and chokepoint closures could double prices, with spare capacity concentrated in conflict zones.

7 min read ·
Geopolitics

Starmer’s Iran Calculus: Base Access, Blair’s Ghost, and Labour’s Marginal Seat Problem

Prime Minister's approval of US strikes from UK soil resurrects toxic political memories—and exposes Labour to electoral risk in constituencies won by knife-edge margins.

9 min read ·
Geopolitics

Hegseth’s Pentagon: Culture Wars Meet Military Escalation in Iran Strike

Defense Secretary's campaign against elite institutions collides with largest US military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, culminating in strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader.

9 min read ·