JPMorgan

Macro Markets

Fed Tells Banks: The Capital Fight Is Over

Regulators privately instruct lenders to limit pushback on revised Basel rules, marking strategic shift after 2023 lobbying blitz.

7 min read ·
Macro Markets

Basel III Reversal Frees $200 Billion for US Banks—Now Comes the Allocation Fight

Federal regulators' March 2026 capital rule overhaul hands mega-banks unprecedented firepower for lending expansion or shareholder returns, reshaping credit markets and bank equity valuations.

7 min read ·
Macro Markets

Dimon Flags Private Credit Crisis as Defaults Hit Record 9.2%

JPMorgan CEO's shareholder letter exposes deteriorating underwriting and opacity in $1.8 trillion shadow lending market as pension funds face mounting losses.

7 min read ·
Macro Markets

JPMorgan’s S&P 500 Cut Signals Institutional Pivot on Oil Transmission Mechanics

Target reduction to 7,200 flags systematic mispricing of demand destruction, margin compression, and geopolitical AI infrastructure risk.

7 min read ·
Geopolitics Markets

Dimon Warns Markets Complacent on Iran Escalation as Oil Hits $79, VIX Stays Muted

JPMorgan CEO cautions investors underpricing geopolitical tail risk after weekend strikes spark only limited volatility despite effective closure of critical energy chokepoint.

8 min read ·
Energy Markets

JPMorgan Maps $120 Oil Scenario as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Freezes

The bank maintains a $60 base case for 2026 but warns military escalation and chokepoint closures could double prices, with spare capacity concentrated in conflict zones.

7 min read ·