Monetary Policy
What Is the Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate and Why Does It Matter?
The Fed's twin goals of maximum employment and stable prices explain every interest rate decision—and why AI is creating unprecedented policy tensions.
Americans Pay 90% of Tariff Costs as Supreme Court Forces Policy Reset
New research traces $287 billion in customs revenue to domestic consumers and businesses, while Bank of Japan holds rates steady amid diverging central bank policies.
Iran-Israel War Threatens Macro Stability Through Oil Shock, Inflation Risk
Escalating conflict pushes Brent crude past $79 as Federal Reserve faces renewed inflation pressure amid growth concerns.
ECB’s Lane Warns Iran Conflict Could Trigger Eurozone Stagflation
Chief economist says prolonged Middle East war threatens substantial inflation spike and sharp output drop as oil prices surge 10% amid Strait of Hormuz disruption.
The Fed’s AI Dilemma: Productivity Promises Meet Labor Market Disruption
Federal Reserve officials acknowledge deep uncertainty as generative AI threatens to decouple employment from inflation, testing the central bank's dual mandate and forcing policymakers to model economic dynamics they can't yet measure.
Payrolls Data Becomes Fed’s Pivot Point as Rate Cut Debate Intensifies
With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5-3.75%, Friday's employment report will test whether January's 130,000 job gain marks a labor market turning point or a statistical anomaly.
Fed’s MBS-to-Treasury Pivot Meets Treasury Bill Surge: Policy Coordination or Market Coincidence?
As the Federal Reserve converts $2 trillion in mortgage holdings to T-bills, Treasury floods the short end with record issuance—creating demand-supply dynamics not seen since the 2019 repo crisis.