Moody’s Analytics
Energy
Macro
Oil at $125 Would Trigger Recession—Brent Just Hit $116
Moody's identifies the price threshold that tips the global economy into contraction as U.S.-Iran tensions push crude within 8% of that tripwire.
Breaking
Macro
Markets
Moody’s Quantifies Recession Threshold at 49% as Oil Price Shock Enters Critical Window
Machine-learning model ties Q2 repricing event to sustained $80-100 crude, with corporate margin compression and consumer spending collapse mechanisms now active.