Prediction Markets

Markets

Regulators Struggle to Police Front-Running of Trump’s Market-Moving Posts

Over $500 million in suspicious trades ahead of presidential announcements expose enforcement gaps as agencies debate whether social media constitutes insider information.

7 min read ·
Macro Markets

Federal Court Blocks Arizona’s Criminal Case Against Kalshi in Landmark Preemption Fight

CFTC secures restraining order against state gambling prosecution, escalating jurisdictional battle over prediction markets that could reshape fintech regulation.

8 min read ·
Geopolitics Markets

Crude Futures Surge Before Iran Ceasefire Reveals Gaps in Cross-Market Surveillance

$580 million in oil contracts traded in 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, alongside $600,000 in prediction market profits, exposing regulatory blind spots in geopolitical intelligence leaks.

7 min read ·
Geopolitics Technology

Senators Target Prediction Market Trading by Federal Officials

Merkley and Klobuchar introduce legislation to ban government insiders from profiting on Polymarket and Kalshi, extending STOCK Act principles to a $60 billion market plagued by suspicious trades.

7 min read ·
AI

OpenAI Fires Employee Over Prediction Market Trading Using Confidential Information

The termination marks the first confirmed enforcement action by a major AI company against insider trading on cryptocurrency-based betting platforms, establishing a governance precedent as tech firms confront a regulatory vacuum.

7 min read ·
Markets

Kalshi Fines MrBeast Editor $20,000 in First Public Insider Trading Case

Artem Kaptur's 'near-perfect' bet record on YouTube content markets marks prediction platforms' first enforcement against a social media employee.

7 min read ·