Recession

Breaking Macro Markets

Global Markets Erase $12 Trillion in Historic March Rout

Unprecedented oil shock, collapsing AI valuations, and extreme leverage converge to trigger the largest single-month drawdown on record.

8 min read ·
Energy Macro

Goldman Raises US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shocks Replace Fed Rates as Master Variable

Energy supply constraints—not monetary policy—now drive both growth and inflation outcomes, trapping the Fed in a stagflationary policy bind.

7 min read ·
Macro Markets

Job Openings Rise to 6.9 Million as Hiring Flatlines, Exposing Labour Market Disconnect Ahead of Fed Pivot

January JOLTS data reveals employer caution despite surface demand—rising vacancies paired with stagnant hiring signal recession risks as oil shock and stagflation fears mount.

7 min read ·
Macro

Markets Follow Predictable Patterns Through Recessions, Historical Data Shows

BCA Research analysis demonstrates that US recessions average 10 months, bear markets decline 32%, and recoveries deliver 40% returns within 12 months of market lows.

7 min read ·