Risk Premium
How Markets Price War Risk Before Supply Disruptions Occur
Understanding the mechanics of conflict premiums in commodity markets and why diplomatic announcements can trigger overnight price collapses without changing physical supply.
Equity Futures Surge 1.8% as Trump Halts Iran Strikes for Two Weeks
Two-week ceasefire suspends five-plus-week conflict, triggering largest oil price collapse since 1991 Gulf War and compressing geopolitical risk premium across macro assets.
Trump’s Iran Deal Signals Trigger $14bn Oil Premium Unwind as Markets Reprice Conflict Risk
Brent retreats from $112 as negotiation rhetoric collides with physical supply constraints, exposing fragility in geopolitical risk positioning across energy and defense equities.
Oil Crashes 11% as Trump Claims Iran Talks — But Tehran Says They Never Happened
Markets priced a peace dividend on March 23 before confronting a credibility gap that leaves billions in geopolitical hedges stranded.