Trade Policy
Tariff Passthrough Hits 100% as Reshoring Investment Stalls
Federal Reserve data confirms consumer prices absorb full tariff burden within seven months, adding 3.1 percentage points to core inflation — but policy uncertainty freezes the capex decisions needed to justify the pain.
China threatens EU retaliation as Brussels expands trade restrictions
Beijing's control over critical minerals and manufacturing supply chains gives it asymmetric leverage as Europe accelerates regulatory assertiveness on EVs, semiconductors, and cybersecurity.
EU Clears Trump’s July 4 Trade Deadline as Political Theater Reshapes Global Dealmaking
Provisional agreement removes ratification bottleneck but establishes fragile template for deadline-driven negotiations with China and UK to follow.
Nomura Projects 110% Semiconductor Upside as AI Memory Demand Enters Structural Supercycle
Multi-year HBM expansion and geopolitical supply fragmentation position memory suppliers for sustained margin expansion through 2027.
US and China Lock in Tariff Pause Through November, Leaving Core Disputes Unresolved
Beijing summit yields 30% US tariff ceiling and rare earth export relief, but semiconductor tensions and strategic competition framework signal tactical truce rather than lasting reset.
US Pushes Full-Stack AI Exports as China Captures Market with Open-Source Models
White House program aims to lock allies into American AI infrastructure while Beijing's low-cost alternatives gain ground in developing markets.
Trump-Xi Summit Yields Stability Rhetoric, Markets Await Policy Substance
Beijing meeting produces 'strategic stability' framework and semiconductor approvals, but implementation gaps from prior summits leave investors skeptical on tariffs, tech, and energy deals.
Trump and Xi Formalize Trade Truce as US Tariffs on China Fall to 31%
Beijing summit extends November 2025 deal with Boeing orders and agricultural commitments, but structural issues remain unresolved.
US-EU Critical Minerals Partnership Targets China’s Processing Chokehold
Agreement formalizes trade mechanisms and supply chain coordination across battery, semiconductor, and rare earth sectors, but binding commitments remain months away.
Trump-Xi Summit Triggers 300-500bp Semiconductor Volatility Swing as Markets Price Tariff Reset
Beijing meeting forces repricing of AI export controls, Taiwan supply chain risk, and $30 billion tariff reduction pathway—with VIX up 6.92% and prediction markets at 81% for truce extension.
Trump’s Beijing Summit Meets China at Peak Leverage
First US presidential visit since 2017 tests whether tariff truce survives strategic competition over chips, rare earths, and Taiwan.
Trump’s Cartel Indictments Put Sheinbaum Between USMCA Survival and Political Collapse
Ten Mexican officials charged with cartel collusion weeks before trade review deadline, creating double-bind that threatens $1.8 trillion in trilateral commerce and nearshoring momentum.