Taliban Launches Retaliatory Strikes on Pakistan After Border Airstrikes Kill Civilians

Afghanistan’s Taliban government initiated strikes against Pakistani military positions on Thursday evening, delivering on vows to respond to weekend airstrikes that Kabul says killed civilians and violated its sovereignty. The retaliation marks a dangerous new phase in a border conflict that has already shattered a fragile ceasefire and threatens to spiral beyond the control of regional mediators.

A statement from Afghanistan’s eastern military corps announced that ‘heavy clashes’ had begun Thursday night ‘in response to the recent airstrikes carried out by Pakistani forces in Nangarhar and Paktia provinces,’ according to India TV News and Al Arabiya English. Pakistan has not confirmed the attacks, and no casualty figures are available.

The Provocation

Pakistan Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes on February 21 over Afghanistan’s Nangarhar, Paktika and Khost provinces, targeting seven militant camps in retaliation for recent terror attacks in Islamabad, Bajaur, and Bannu, according to Wikipedia. The operation was described as a retributive response to a series of suicide bombings inside Pakistan, including the February 6 bombing of a Shia mosque in Islamabad that killed 31 worshippers, claimed by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), according to Wikipedia. Days later, an explosives-laden vehicle rammed a security post in Bajaur in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing 11 soldiers and a child, as reported by Al Jazeera.

The strikes triggered immediate backlash. According to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, the strikes killed 13 civilians and injured seven others in Behsud district of Nangarhar province, including women and children, per Wikipedia. The airstrike in Behsud district resulted in the deaths of 18 civilians, including 11 children from a single family who were trapped under the rubble, according to Taliban officials cited by Wikipedia.

Escalation Timeline

The Militant Threat Assessment

The immediate trigger is clear, but the strategic backdrop is more complex. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the total number of fighters affiliated with international terrorist groups in Afghanistan ranges between 20,000 and 23,000, more than half of whom are foreign nationals, according to Hasht-e Subh. These groups include ISIS-Khorasan with around 3,000 fighters; Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with between 5,000 and 7,000; al-Qaeda with 400 to 1,500; the East Turkestan Islamic Movement with 300 to 1,200, the ministry said in a February 23 report.

A United Nations Security Council report released in February warned that the TTP enjoys ‘preferential treatment’ under the Taliban regime, and that the scale of TTP activities has grown as has cooperation with al-Qaida-aligned groups, which could potentially result in an ‘extra-regional threat,’ reported The Diplomat.

Pakistan takes strong exception to the situation in Afghanistan where the Taliban regime has created conditions similar to or worse than pre-9/11,’ said President Asif Ali Zardari, according to The Diplomat. Kabul vehemently denies the allegations. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said TTP had no presence in Afghanistan: ‘These are Pakistan’s internal problems. TTP controls large areas inside Pakistan itself. They can live there; they do not need Afghan soil. And we would not allow them to use Afghan soil in the first place,’ he told Al Arabiya English. Mujahid went further, accusing Pakistan of harboring ISIS militants: ‘Instead of suppressing ISIS, Pakistan has provided them with safe havens,’ alleging militant presence in parts of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Regional Implications

Later on Sunday, India condemned the Pakistani military action and threw in its support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, stating that ‘India strongly condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan,’ according to Al Jazeera. The statement from New Delhi underscored the unease in Islamabad over India’s growing engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan — an emerging partnership between two countries that Pakistan has repeatedly blamed in recent months for its domestic security turmoil.

No other country or the United Nations issued a formal condemnation of the airstrikes. UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan urged both nations to cease hostilities and to take steps to prevent harm to civilians, according to Wikipedia.

What to Watch

The military calculus is stark. At 172,000, the Taliban have less than a third of Pakistan’s personnel. Though the Taliban possess at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, their condition is unknown and they have no fighter jets or effective air force. Pakistan’s armed forces include more than 600,000 active personnel, more than 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles and more than 400 combat aircraft. The country is also nuclear armed, according to US News & World Report.

But conventional superiority does not translate to strategic advantage in this environment. ‘The more Pakistan will strike in Afghanistan, the more Kabul and TTP will come closer,’ Abdul Basit, a scholar at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, told Al Jazeera, as reported by Al Jazeera. Basit described Pakistan as being ‘left between bad and worse options’ after losing so many security personnel.

Relations between the neighbours have plunged in recent months, with land border crossings largely shut since deadly fighting in October that killed more than 50 people on both sides of the frontier. India’s condemnation of Pakistan adds another layer to an already complex geopolitical situation in South Asia.