Trump Orders Navy to Kill Iranian Speedboats as Swarm Tactics Choke 20% of Global Oil Transit
Asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz exposes US naval vulnerabilities while oil hits $103 and insurance costs quadruple.
President Trump on April 23 ordered the US Navy to shoot and kill Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating an eight-week naval confrontation that has pushed Brent crude to $103.67 per barrel and reduced shipping traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint by 95%.
The directive came hours after Iran seized two container ships attempting to transit the strait, which facilitates passage of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day—approximately one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. According to CNBC, Trump issued a blunt instruction: “I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be, that is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation.”
$103.67/bbl
$94-96/bbl
-95%
30+
0.2-0.4%
Asymmetric Warfare Exposes Carrier Group Vulnerabilities
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has transformed the naval confrontation from a conventional force-on-force engagement into a dispersed guerrilla campaign at sea. The US Navy destroyed Iran’s major surface combatants in the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury—the February 28 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—but now faces an elusive adversary operating hundreds of fast-attack craft across 21 miles of shallow, congested waterways.
Iran possessed hundreds if not thousands of small boats before the war began, according to Reuters analysis. Despite US claims of destroying approximately 100 vessels since late February, the IRGC retained roughly 50% of its naval assets as of mid-April, citing Israel Hayom and Israeli intelligence assessments.
“When the U.S. Navy and the president say, ‘We’ve destroyed the navy, we’ve sunk a frigate off Sri Lanka’—you’ve done that before, but you’ve forgotten that your opposition here went asymmetric.”
— Duncan Potts, former British Royal Navy vice admiral and director at Universal Defence and Security Solutions
The tactical mismatch forces carrier strike groups—billion-dollar capital assets designed to project power against peer adversaries—to track individual speedboats worth perhaps $50,000 each. Jeremy Binnie, Middle East specialist at defence intelligence firm Janes, told Baird Maritime that “it is going to be much harder to eliminate the small boat threat than it was to destroy Iran’s larger naval vessels, which were big targets that were relatively easy to find and track.”
Economic Pressure Mounts as Energy Prices Spike
The closure of the strait has withdrawn an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day from global markets—roughly 5% of worldwide supply. Brent crude jumped to $103.67 on April 23 while West Texas Intermediate traded near $96, according to Fortune and Trading Economics. US gasoline prices surpassed $4 per gallon, up from $3 before the conflict began.
Shipping costs have quadrupled. War-risk insurance premiums increased from a pre-crisis baseline of 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% per transit, translating to approximately $250,000 per passage for very large oil tankers. About 20,000 mariners and 2,000 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf based on crisis reporting.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury—coordinated airstrikes targeting Iranian military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in the attacks and was succeeded by his son Mojtaba. Iran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz and launching 21 confirmed attacks on merchant shipping. US Central Command has directed 31 vessels to turn around or return to port since the blockade intensified on April 13.
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS Group in Zurich, told Rigzone that “as long as flows through the Strait remain restricted, the market keeps tightening and oil inventories keep falling, oil prices will remain supported.” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, warned of potential demand destruction reaching 5-10 million barrels per day—a shock “similar to the seventies.”
Paradox: US Blockade Strengthens Iranian Leverage
Trump’s escalation order coincided with fragile diplomatic efforts to contain the broader regional conflict. The White House hosted a second round of talks on April 23 between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors aimed at extending a 10-day ceasefire in Israel’s war with Hezbollah, Iran’s primary proxy force. According to NPR, the ceasefire was extended by three weeks, though violations from both sides continue.
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref framed the blockade as economic retaliation, stating per Al Jazeera: “The security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free. One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others.” Trump claimed on April 22 that the blockade costs Iran $500 million daily, yet the regime appears willing to absorb those losses in exchange for leverage over global energy markets.
- US naval doctrine optimised for peer conflict proves ill-suited to countering distributed, low-cost swarm tactics in littoral environments
- Iran’s willingness to forgo oil revenue suggests blockade leverage outweighs immediate economic pain—raising questions about US deterrence credibility
- Quadrupling of war-risk premiums and reduced traffic create structural incentives for alternate routing, potentially reducing strait’s strategic importance long-term
- Seizure of civilian vessels demonstrates commercial shipping lacks defences against state-sponsored interdiction, exposing gaps in freedom of navigation enforcement
The April 22 seizures of the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas container ships—with a third vessel escaping capture—highlighted the vulnerability of commercial traffic. Daniel Mueller, senior analyst at British maritime security firm Ambrey, noted in Reuters coverage that “the civilian shipping industry is not equipped to prevent Iranian armed forces from seizing vessels.”
What to Watch
Naval engagement rules following Trump’s shoot-and-kill directive will determine whether US forces can effectively counter swarm tactics without triggering disproportionate escalation. Oil Markets will watch for any resumption of tanker traffic—even limited convoys would signal Iran’s blockade strategy is failing. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire remains the most immediate variable; collapse of talks would likely deepen Iran’s commitment to Hormuz interdiction as leverage against US-Israeli coordination.
Longer-term, Pentagon procurement priorities may shift toward platforms optimised for asymmetric littoral warfare—smaller, faster vessels with lower operational costs than carrier strike groups. Insurance markets will reassess Persian Gulf routing permanently if the crisis extends beyond 90 days, potentially accelerating structural shifts toward alternate supply routes that bypass the strait entirely. Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Rigzone: “The ceasefire could be unravelling. Ships are being boarded. The Iranians are thumbing their nose at the US. The naval activity is concrete escalation.”