Trump Weighs Iran Sanctions Relief for China as Maximum Pressure Doctrine Fractures

President Donald Trump said he will decide “within the next few days” whether to grant sanctions relief to Chinese entities purchasing Iranian crude, marking a potential reversal of the maximum pressure doctrine that has defined US policy toward Tehran since the war began in late February.

Speaking aboard Air Force One on May 15 after his Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, Trump confirmed the Sanctions relief issue was discussed but declined to characterize his position as seeking “favors” from China. The move would reshape the triangular competition between Washington, Beijing, and Tehran at a moment when Iranian oil exports have collapsed from 1.6 million barrels per day in February to roughly 0.4 million bpd by late April—a 75% reduction driven by US naval operations and comprehensive sanctions, according to The Middle East Insider.

WTI crude climbed 4.5% to near $106 per barrel on May 15, booking an 11% weekly gain as markets priced in continued undersupply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, per Trading Economics. The International Energy Agency warned the global oil market could remain materially undersupplied through October even if the conflict resolves next month, with crude and fuel flows through the Strait falling roughly 4 million bpd in March-April.

The Dealmaking Pivot

Trump’s openness to sanctions relief represents a sharp departure from the escalating pressure campaign his administration has waged since hostilities began. On May 8, the White House approved sanctions on 10 Chinese entities and individuals for providing satellite imagery that enabled Iranian military strikes, CNBC reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the time that the designations targeted “China-based entities providing satellite imagery to enable Iran’s military strikes against U.S. forces.”

Two weeks earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical’s Dalian refinery—a facility with 400,000 barrels-per-day processing capacity—for receiving Iranian crude shipments since 2023, according to Fortune. Bessent characterized the action as holding “the Iranian regime accountable for its extortion of global energy markets.”

Yet China has signaled it will not capitulate to US economic pressure. On May 2, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce ordered firms and banks to disregard US sanctions on Chinese refineries—an unprecedented state-backed defiance of American financial statecraft. Max Meizlish, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News the move was “a major escalation in terms of China’s response to U.S. economic statecraft.”

Energy Security Leverage

China imported 80-90% of Iran’s oil exports before the war began, giving Beijing asymmetric leverage in broader trade negotiations with Washington. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff executive order on Iran’s trading partners this year, creating potential pressure on China’s $400 billion-plus annual exports to the United States. But Beijing’s willingness to absorb sanctions through state-controlled refineries and shadow tanker fleets complicates enforcement.

Trump’s framing of the sanctions relief discussion as non-transactional conflicts with the strategic reality. Al Jazeera reported that China’s cooperation on Iran may require US concessions on Taiwan or trade, reflecting Beijing’s calculation that its Energy Security needs give it negotiating room.

Sanctions relief could unlock 500,000 barrels per day or more to global markets, potentially easing prices that have climbed above $100 for WTI. But the move carries significant political risk domestically and with Gulf allies who backed the maximum pressure campaign.

Domestic and Allied Blowback

Republican hawks have already signaled discomfort with sanctions waivers. In March, GOP lawmakers expressed concern over potential relief measures, with Senator Thom Tillis criticizing the administration for “rewarding adversaries,” Foreign Policy reported. On May 15, Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Rand Paul voted to advance a war powers resolution ending Iran hostilities, revealing fractures in GOP support for the military campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump on May 11 that the conflict is “not over” until Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is removed and enrichment sites dismantled, according to Time. That maximalist position sits uneasily with any sanctions relief that would provide Tehran a revenue lifeline before nuclear concessions are secured.

Trump’s public statements reflect the tension. On May 15, he told reporters he is “not going to be much more patient” with Iran and that “they should make a deal,” per Detroit News. Days earlier, he dismissed Iran’s May 11 peace proposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”

What to Watch

Trump’s decision timeline—”the next few days”—means clarity should emerge before the end of next week. If sanctions relief is granted, the immediate questions will be scope (which entities receive waivers), duration (temporary or indefinite), and conditionality (tied to Iranian nuclear concessions or Chinese trade commitments).

Markets will watch whether relief translates to actual barrel flows or remains symbolic. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on May 11 that “if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat,” suggesting Tehran may not immediately capitalize on any opening. Chinese refiners, meanwhile, face the calculation of whether to resume imports under waivers or continue relying on shadow tanker networks that have proven resilient to enforcement.

The broader signal is strategic: Trump’s willingness to subordinate maximum pressure to dealmaking pragmatism establishes a framework where sanctions become negotiable rather than absolute. That shift may yield short-term energy relief but risks undermining the credibility of future economic coercion—a trade-off that will define US policy toward adversaries for the remainder of his term.