Ukraine Claims First Territorial Gains Since 2023 as Battlefield Dynamics Shift
Kyiv recaptured 460 square kilometers since January, disrupting Russia's spring offensive plans while peace talks remain stalled.
Ukrainian forces reclaimed more territory than they lost during February 2026 for the first time since the summer 2023 counteroffensive, marking a potential inflection point in the 30-month conflict. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed Ukrainian forces have regained 460 square kilometers since the start of 2026, while the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed Ukrainian troops retook roughly 257 square kilometers since January, with net gains of 33 square kilometers between February 14-20 and roughly 57 square kilometers between February 21-27.
Ukraine last achieved net territorial gains during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, when Ukrainian forces captured 377 square kilometers in June, 257 in July, and 1.47 in September before the offensive stalled. Russian forces have occupied approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory since February 2022.
The advances centered on the Zaporizhzhia region, roughly 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia city, where Russian forces had been making gains since summer 2025. Eight settlements were liberated as Ukrainian elite Air Assault Forces, including the 82nd Bukovyna and 95th Polissia brigades, conducted offensive operations along the Oleksandrivka axis. The operation achieved tactical surprise in difficult conditions—a regimental commander said Ukraine timed the Huliaipole operation around weather conditions, but with clear skies now prevailing, neither side can move effectively without catastrophic losses.
Russian Communication Breakdown
Ukraine’s counterattacks leveraged a critical Russian vulnerability. ISW stated the Ukrainian counterattacks likely exploited the recent block on Russian forces’ access to Starlink, after SpaceX and Ukraine’s Defense ministry blocked Russian troops from using Starlink in early February. A significant change in Russian battlefield behavior was observed over the past two weeks, particularly a decrease in combat engagements linked to Russian troop regrouping and the loss of Starlink systems, which complicated command and control for Russian forces.
The territorial recovery comes at extraordinary cost to Russian forces. Russia suffered approximately 1,270,400 casualties in Ukraine between February 24, 2022 and March 5, 2026, with 900 soldiers killed or wounded in the past 24 hours. Western officials estimated in February 2026 that Russian casualties, including killed and wounded, reached 1,200,000. According to United 24 Media, Russia loses at least one soldier killed for every five meters advanced.
Strategic Impact: Derailing Moscow’s Spring Offensive
Ukraine’s recent gains disrupted Russian efforts to prepare for a planned spring-summer 2026 offensive, forcing Russian troops to focus on establishing stable defenses before attempting to retake lost ground. According to Kyiv Post, Russian military command was preparing for summer 2026 offensives in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk or Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia directions, but Russian forces are now struggling to seize necessary starting positions to launch the offensive on the command’s intended timeline.
Yet analysts caution against overinterpreting the advances. ISW assessed the successful, localized Ukrainian counterattacks are unlikely to grow into a large-scale counteroffensive, and Russian forces will very likely stabilize their positions and begin advancing again. The Ukrainian advances trackable in open sources remain no more than extended clearing operations in a wide contested “grey zone,” rather than capturing Russian-held lines of defense.
Peace Talks Stall Amid Diverging Demands
The battlefield momentum has not translated to diplomatic progress. US-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow initially planned for this week are postponed indefinitely due to the war in Iran, according to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Three rounds of talks between US, Ukrainian and Russian officials, held in the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland in late January/February 2026, have not achieved a breakthrough.
Russian officials increasingly consider there’s no point to continue US-led peace talks with Ukraine unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory to reach a deal, with Russia likely to walk away if President Zelenskyy fails to make the concession, according to Bloomberg. Territory remains a major sticking point, with Russia insisting that Ukraine give up the remaining 20 percent of the Donetsk region that Russian forces have failed to capture—a demand rejected by Kyiv.
Russian negotiators see Ukraine’s flexibility as a sign that Trump has succeeded in pressuring President Zelensky, creating a vicious circle in which as soon as Ukraine’s position weakens under pressure, Russia increases its demands, according to analysis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Defense Sector Capitalizes on European Rearmament
Ukraine’s battlefield resilience has accelerated Europe’s defense spending cycle. The STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense Index showed gains of more than 65% in 2025, according to Datasite. Analysis of Refinitiv data by law firm A&O Shearman reported $2.3 billion of European defense M&A deal value through the first half of 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase.
EU Member States collectively spent approximately €240 billion on defense in 2022, rising to €279 billion in 2023, €326 billion in 2024, and are estimated to have exceeded €360 billion in 2025, according to Gainify. In 2026, Germany shifted from one-off emergency funding toward permanent increases in baseline defense budgets, while France maintained spending above 2% of GDP and reaffirmed plans to move toward 3-3.5%.
Sweden’s SAAB rose 28% in Swedish krona in early 2026, a near 200% uplift in 12 months, while Germany’s Rheinmetall increased 22% in euros in 2026, also close to a 200% rise since January 2025, according to Morningstar. The rally reflects investor recognition that the war will continue “well into 2026, and perhaps longer,” citing discussions with defense-industry experts, think tanks and political sources, according to J.P. Morgan analysis.
| Company | Country | 2026 YTD Gain | 12-Month Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAAB | Sweden | +28% | +200% |
| Rheinmetall | Germany | +22% | +200% |
| Rolls-Royce | UK | +11% | — |
| Leonardo | Italy | +18% | — |
Energy Infrastructure Under Siege
As Ukraine advanced on the battlefield, Russia intensified strikes on civilian infrastructure. Russia attacked Ukraine with 50 missiles and 297 drones in overnight attacks on February 21-22, with air defense units shooting down or neutralizing 33 missiles and 274 drones, according to Reuters. Ukraine’s Energy minister told parliament that there was “not a single power plant left in Ukraine that the enemy has not attacked”.
Since the start of 2026 alone, 217 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have been reported, with Russia firing more than 6,000 attack drones, around 5,500 guided aerial bombs, and 158 missiles of various types at infrastructure in January, according to Greenpeace International. Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure, according to ISW assessments.
The humanitarian toll remains severe. Russian attacks killed and injured scores of civilians and deprived millions of electricity, heating and water for prolonged periods, with the impact felt most acutely by older people, children and those with limited mobility, according to UN Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo.
“Moscow continues to invest in strikes more than in diplomacy. This week alone, Russia launched more than 1,300 drones, more than 1,400 guided aerial bombs and 96 missiles against Ukraine.”
— President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, February 22, 2026
What to Watch
Three factors will determine whether Ukraine’s February gains represent a sustainable shift or tactical anomaly. First, weather: clear spring conditions neutralize Ukraine’s drone advantage and favor Russian artillery superiority, likely slowing Ukrainian operations. Second, Western arms flow: continued deliveries of long-range systems and air defense interceptors will determine Ukraine’s ability to protect reclaimed territory while striking Russian logistics. Third, negotiation dynamics: Russia’s willingness to continue talks hinges on whether battlefield setbacks convince Moscow to moderate territorial demands or harden its position.
The defense investment cycle appears locked in regardless of near-term diplomatic outcomes. At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, European allies committed to raise core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, with an additional 1.5% earmarked for broader security-related investments, bringing total defense-related spending to 5% of GDP. For European defense contractors, Ukraine’s demonstration that Western systems can degrade Russian capabilities has become the sector’s most compelling sales pitch—one that February’s territorial gains will only amplify.