The Wire
All the analysis, as it happens.
18:42
US Signs First Commercial Cobalt Refinery Deal, Targeting China’s 75% Processing Monopoly
EVelution Energy's $850 million Mitsui offtake agreement marks the first attempt to build domestic cobalt refining capacity as IRA compliance deadlines loom and battery demand…
10:37
The Great Bifurcation: AI Deflation Collides with Energy-Driven Stagflation
Brent crude at $114 per barrel meets AI-driven margin compression, fracturing global markets into parallel economies that central banks cannot coordinate.
08:15
Triple Squeeze: Ukrainian Strikes, Hormuz Blockade, and Refinery Outages Push Brent to $114
Russian refinery throughput collapses to 16-year low as sustained drone campaign compounds three-week Hormuz closure and seasonal maintenance cycles.
07:43
U.S. Inflation Hits 3.3% as Iran War Energy Shock Forces Fed Policy Pivot
Gasoline surge of 21% monthly drives headline CPI to three-year high while depleted petroleum reserves limit administration response options.
04:33
Ukrainian Strikes Cripple Black Sea Refinery as Russian Output Hits 17-Year Low
Three precision attacks on Tuapse facility destroy 52% of storage capacity, drive national throughput to 4.69 million bpd, and trigger environmental crisis amid global supply…
00:54
UAE Exits OPEC After 60 Years, Stripping Cartel of Second-Largest Spare Capacity
The withdrawal removes a core pillar of production discipline as the organization struggles to enforce 2 million bpd cuts amid Iran war-driven price volatility.
20:43
Europe’s Energy Diversification Fails as China Locks Central Asian Gas, Turkey Loses Iran Supply
Dual shocks from Iranian sanctions and Turkmenistan's pivot to Chinese contracts push European gas prices 35% higher, forcing EUR 10-15 billion in emergency storage costs…
19:38
US inflation hits 3-year high as Iran war energy shock forces Fed into policy paralysis
March PCE jumps to 3.5% on oil surge while growth slows to 2%, creating stagflation dilemma that prevents both rate cuts and hikes
19:03
ECB and BoE execute hawkish hold as energy shock reverses rate-cut consensus
Simultaneous central bank decisions mark the end of the disinflationary era and set the stage for June tightening as Middle East conflict drives inflation above…
17:59
Trump Receives Iran Strike Briefings as 60-Day War Powers Deadline Expires
Oil markets spike to $126 on escalation risk as administration weighs military options amid diplomatic deadlock over nuclear terms and blockade.
15:06
Iran’s New Supreme Leader Vows Nuclear Defense as Oil Hits $126, UAE Exits OPEC
Mojtaba Khamenei signals Hormuz control and rejects disarmament while crude surges to four-year high, military options expand, and regional energy alliance fractures.
14:33
Oil Hits $114 as Hormuz Blockade Deepens, ECB Warns on Inflation Spillover
Brent crude reaches four-year high on supply disruption fears, with dual US-Iran blockade cutting 13 million barrels per day from global flows and pushing emerging…
14:11
Pentagon Seeks First Hypersonic Deployment Against Iran as Oil Hits $126
Dark Eagle missile request marks escalation from economic blockade to kinetic strikes while Brent crude touches four-year high on supply disruption fears.
13:22
UAE Quits OPEC as Iran War Pushes Oil Above $114, Leaving Saudi Arabia Alone to Manage Supply Shocks
The cartel's third-largest producer exits effective May 1, collapsing OPEC's market share below 30% for the first time as Brent trades near four-year highs and…
10:13
US Assembles Coalition to Secure Hormuz as Oil Hits $126 on Dual Blockade
The Maritime Freedom Construct marks a strategic shift after unilateral control failed, but mine-clearing alone will take six months while 21 million barrels per day…
09:10
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Drives Crude to $126 as Markets Price Months-Long Disruption
Explicit threat of sustained naval blockade—framed as economic strangulation rather than rhetoric—triggers 4-year oil price highs and stagflation repricing across derivatives markets.
00:07
IAEA’s Eight-Month Iran Verification Blackout Creates Nuclear Intelligence Void
Loss of monitoring access to 440.9 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium transforms opacity from compliance issue into escalation catalyst.
15:35
Crude Hits $111 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Month, Forcing Fed Into Stagflation Trap
Two-month closure of Strait of Hormuz has removed 20% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude to $111 and US gasoline to four-year highs while…
08:34
Trump’s Hormuz blockade enters third week as oil holds above $110, neither side shows retreat
Pentagon enforcement now costing Iran $500 million daily according to White House estimates, but 26 vessels breached cordon as dual maritime standoff drags crude markets…
07:30
Treasury Targets Banks Financing Chinese Refiners Processing Iranian Crude
Secondary sanctions warnings escalate U.S. enforcement from Iran to global financial intermediaries, threatening compliance costs and China-U.S. decoupling.