Washington Eases Russia Sanctions as Paris Vows Harder Line
US rolls back oil penalties to contain Iran war fallout while Macron pledges sustained pressure on Moscow, exposing fracture in Western strategy as Ukraine war enters year five.
The United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil stranded at sea, marking the second rollback of Ukraine-related sanctions in just over a week as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The move, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on March 12, permits the delivery and sale of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels through April 11.
The decision reflects Washington’s prioritization of domestic economic concerns over allied coordination. The Washington Post reported the move came after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of global oil supply. According to Al Monitor, Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev claimed the waiver would affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day’s worth of global output.
Bessent insisted the measure was “narrowly tailored” and would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes at extraction. The license followed a March 5 waiver specifically for India and came after a March 9 call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, per Reuters.
Europe Rejects US Reversal
Hours after the US announcement, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a starkly different message during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Paris. “Russia is mistaken if it thinks the war in Iran will offer it respite,” Macron declared at a joint press conference, per France 24. During a G7 video summit on March 11, Macron emphasized that “rising oil prices must under no circumstances lead us to reconsider our sanctions policy towards Russia.”
“Today Russia may believe that the war in Iran will offer it respite. It is mistaken.”
— Emmanuel Macron, French President
The meetings focused on increasing sanctions pressure by targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers used to transport oil in breach of sanctions, according to multiple sources. Macron’s office confirmed France would continue military support for Ukraine and maintain pressure independent of US positions.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters during a Norway visit that “easing sanctions now, for whatever reason, is wrong,” adding that six of the seven G7 leaders were “very clear” that lifting sanctions would not send the right signal, per RTÉ. European Council President António Costa wrote on X that the US decision was “very concerning, as it impacts European security,” stating that “weakening sanctions increases Russian resources to wage the war of aggression against Ukraine.”
| Policy Area | United States | European Union |
|---|---|---|
| Russia oil sanctions | 30-day waiver (until April 11) | 20th package pending; full ban maintained |
| Shadow fleet | No new measures since October 2025 | Maritime services ban (February 2026 proposal) |
| LNG imports | Price cap held at $60 | Full ban effective 2027 |
| Primary driver | Domestic inflation/election concerns | European security imperatives |
Moscow Senses Opportunity
The Kremlin moved quickly to capitalize on the transatlantic split. Russia’s economic envoy Dmitriev said it was “increasingly inevitable” that Washington would lift more sanctions, posting on Telegram that “without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable.” Oil prices soaring to almost $120 a barrel this week would bring Russia an extra $28 billion annually for every $11-per-barrel increase, according to the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper cited by RTÉ.
Moscow has posted budget deficits every year since ordering troops into Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin massively ramped up military spending. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Russia recognized Washington’s “attempt to stabilize energy markets” and “in this respect, our interests coincide,” per NBC News.
Former Putin adviser Sergei Markov said the “minor easing won’t achieve much” but as a reversal from tightening to easing sanctions “it’s significant,” adding that “the Ukraine government is in mourning” at the news.
Alliance Cohesion Under Strain
The policy divergence arrives as NATO faces mounting questions about transatlantic unity. The Trump administration has pursued what analysts describe as a transactional approach to alliances, including demands for increased European defense spending and threats over trade. The February Munich Security Report noted Washington’s “shifting signals have forced Europe into reactive mode,” with European leaders pursuing a dual strategy of keeping the US engaged while cautiously preparing for greater autonomy.
- European Commission planning 20th Russia sanctions package targeting energy, financial services, and trade—now complicated by need to coordinate without US participation
- Hungary’s veto of €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine adds internal EU friction to transatlantic split
- Russia’s 2026 budget devotes 40% to security and defense; sanctions relief and higher oil prices provide fiscal breathing room
- Coordinated Western strategy—foundational to Ukraine support since 2022—now at risk as US prioritizes short-term domestic relief over long-term deterrence
According to Euronews, the International Energy Agency said on March 12 that the war in the Middle East was creating “the biggest oil supply disruption in history,” lending some credence to US rationale. However, European leaders fear the precedent undermines leverage at a potential negotiating table. UK energy minister Michael Shanks said the UK would not loosen sanctions “at all,” describing the timing as a “critical moment in the Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
Economic vs. Security Logic
The sanctions rollback reflects competing logics within Western strategy. Washington faces domestic pressure as Goldman Sachs raised its recession odds to 25% and modeled inflation reaching 3.3% if oil averages $110 in March and April. The November midterm elections loom, with Trump hoping to retain Republican control of Congress.
Europe, by contrast, views Russia’s war as an existential threat requiring sustained economic warfare regardless of short-term cost. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after the G7 call that “now is not the time to relax sanctions against Russia,” emphasizing that “Russia will only come to the table with genuine intent if it is pressured to do so.”
The US and EU imposed coordinated sanctions on Russia’s energy sector following the 2022 invasion, including an oil price cap mechanism designed to limit Moscow’s revenues while keeping supply flowing. The October 2025 US designation of Rosneft and Lukoil—Russia’s two largest oil companies—represented the Trump administration’s first direct sanctions on Russian energy, coordinated with similar UK and EU measures. That coordination lasted less than five months.
European officials are now accelerating plans for autonomous sanctions enforcement. The EU’s proposed 20th sanctions package, unveiled in early February, includes a full ban on maritime services for Russian crude tankers—insurance, banking, and shipping. Hungary and Slovakia have vetoed the package over an unrelated dispute about the Druzhba pipeline, but the UK Parliament research briefing notes EU determination to push forward regardless of US participation.
What to Watch
The April 11 expiration of the US waiver will test whether Washington extends sanctions relief or reverts to pressure. Russia’s response to potential peace talks—US-proposed trilateral negotiations are scheduled for next week in Switzerland or Turkey—will indicate whether Moscow interprets the waiver as strategic retreat or temporary expedient.
European unity faces its own test as Hungary blocks both the €90 billion Ukraine loan and the 20th sanctions package. France and Germany must decide whether to pursue enhanced cooperation mechanisms that bypass unanimity requirements, potentially fracturing the EU’s common foreign policy. Oil Markets remain the wildcard: if prices moderate as Middle East tensions ease, Washington faces less domestic pressure to maintain the waiver. If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed—Iran’s new supreme leader said March 13 it would stay shut—the US may extend relief indefinitely, cementing the transatlantic split.
The broader question is whether NATO can maintain deterrence when its two largest members pursue contradictory economic strategies toward the adversary. Moscow is already exploiting the division, and Beijing is watching closely. As one European diplomat told reporters in Brussels, “We spent three years building leverage. It takes three weeks to lose it.”