Goldman Sachs Projects 17% Uranium Demand Surge as SMR Deployment Accelerates

Goldman Sachs now projects small modular reactors will add 62 million pounds of uranium demand by 2045, a 17% upside to prior estimates, as the bank formally integrates SMR deployment into its commodity models.

The shift marks institutional recognition that distributed nuclear architecture—not just traditional gigawatt-scale plants—will define the next phase of global Energy Infrastructure. Goldman’s latest Nuclear Nuggets tracker forecasts cumulative SMR capacity of 46 GW by 2045, driven by accelerating commitments from tech firms requiring baseload power for AI datacenters and governments seeking flexible decarbonization pathways, according to OilPrice.

Uranium spot prices stabilized in the mid-to-high $80s per pound after rebounding in April, supported by buying activity in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, Goldman analyst Brian Lee noted in the report. Long-term contract pricing has climbed from $80 to $86 per pound since August 2025, reflecting sustained utility demand and tightening supply. The bank forecasts spot prices will reach approximately $91 per pound by year-end, representing at least 20% upside from current levels, per Futunn.

Supply Deficit Widens as Demand Accelerates

Goldman’s models project cumulative uranium deficits of 13% between 2025-2035, ballooning to 32% by 2045 as new reactors come online faster than mine supply can expand. Annual reactor requirements are expected to reach around 164,000 tons by 2045, excluding secondary demand from utilities stockpiling inventories, governments, or individual purchasers, according to Goldman Sachs.

The structural shortage reflects two converging forces: accelerating demand from both traditional reactor life extensions and new construction, and persistent supply constraints in the three countries that control 70% of global production. Kazakhstan produces 39% of world supply, followed by Canada and Namibia. Geopolitical competition for fuel security has intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exposed Western dependence on Russian enrichment services that still process roughly 40% of global supply.

In January 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded $2.7 billion in contracts to expand domestic uranium enrichment capacity, targeting both low-enriched uranium and high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) required for advanced reactors, data from Data M Intelligence shows. Uranium Energy Corp commenced production at its Burke Hollow project in Texas this year, marking the first new U.S. in-situ recovery uranium mine in over a decade.

Tech Giants Drive SMR Momentum

The integration of SMRs into Goldman’s uranium model reflects concrete commercial traction that was speculative even 18 months ago. Meta signed agreements for up to 7.8 GW of nuclear capacity to power AI datacenters, while Microsoft secured 800+ MW for similar operations, according to Trading Economics. These commitments stem from the realization that intermittent renewables cannot support the 99.99% uptime required for massive AI training clusters, making nuclear the only carbon-free, scalable baseload option.

The European Commission unveiled a nine-point SMR strategy in March 2026 targeting first reactors online by the early 2030s, with designated “SMR Valleys” to cluster manufacturing capacity and reduce costs through scale. SMR market revenues are anticipated to reach $53.8 billion in 2036 and nearly $300 billion by 2046, per forecasts from IDTechEx.

Equity Markets Reflect Supply Constraints

Uranium-focused equities have significantly outperformed broader markets. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) posted a 96.42% total return over the past year as of May 15, 2026, reflecting both spot price appreciation and investor recognition of structural supply deficits. Long-term contracting activity reached 116 million pounds in 2025, the highest level in over a decade, as utilities locked in supply ahead of anticipated price increases, according to Cameco.

The disconnect between accelerating demand and constrained supply has prompted discussion of strategic uranium reserves in the U.S. and allied nations, mirroring historical approaches to oil stockpiles. John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, noted that Western nations “clearly lost their competitive advantage by allowing the entire supply chain to disappear over the last few decades,” per Sprott.

What to Watch

Goldman’s year-end price target of $91 per pound represents a benchmark for whether supply responses can keep pace with accelerating reactor commitments. Key inflection points include the pace of new mine approvals in stable jurisdictions, progress on U.S. HALEU enrichment facilities, and whether utilities continue aggressive contracting that could push spot prices above Goldman’s forecast. The European Commission’s SMR Valley designations expected later this year will signal which member states are positioning for manufacturing leadership. Watch for updates on tech sector nuclear commitments—current agreements cover roughly 8.6 GW, but datacenter power demand projections through 2030 suggest this could double within 18 months. Finally, any further deterioration in geopolitical relations with Russia or Kazakhstan could trigger additional Western investment in indigenous supply chains, accelerating the structural repricing already underway in uranium markets.