Interest Rates
Bank of America Calls Fed Cuts Dead Until 2027—Even as Markets Price Geopolitical Relief
Hawkish inflation outlook collides with equity rally narrative as prolonged high-rate regime threatens AI capex, credit refinancing, and startup funding cycles.
Treasury’s Short-Term Debt Trap Tightens as AI Capex Floods Corporate Bond Markets
Bessent maintains Yellen's bill-heavy issuance strategy while Fed withdraws long-duration support, creating a structural squeeze just as $700 billion in tech capex forces mega-caps toward refinancing.
ECB and BoE execute hawkish hold as energy shock reverses rate-cut consensus
Simultaneous central bank decisions mark the end of the disinflationary era and set the stage for June tightening as Middle East conflict drives inflation above 3% while growth collapses.
Powell’s Final Fed Decision Collides With Iran Energy Shock as Warsh Awaits AI-Powered Chair
Jerome Powell is expected to hold rates steady today amid two-year-high inflation driven by Iran war disruptions, as Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation advances a tech-optimist vision at odds with oil market reality.
Warsh’s Fed ‘Regime Change’ Hits Senate Blockade With Powell Term Ending in Three Weeks
Trump's nominee pledges to end forward guidance and cut policy meetings, but confirmation stalled by Republican senator's demand to resolve investigation into current chair.
Fed’s Dovish Governor Signals Rate-Cut Retreat as Inflation Dynamics Deteriorate
Stephen Miran's hawkish pivot erases rate-cut expectations and threatens tech valuations as 10-year yields surge past 4.3%.
Gasoline Shock Drives US Inflation to 3.3%, Erasing Fed Rate Cut Bets
March CPI surge—largest monthly jump in four years—forces policy reset as war-driven energy spike revives stagflation fears and squeezes household budgets.
Fed Confronts New Inflation Regime as Energy Shock Forces Policy Pivot
March FOMC minutes reveal deep concern over wage-price dynamics and structural shifts in neutral rate assumptions amid unprecedented oil disruption.
Larry Summers Challenges Disinflation Consensus as Markets Price Zero Fed Cuts
The economist who called the 2021 inflation surge warns against premature victory declarations, complicating rate-cut expectations as Treasury yields hover near nine-month highs.
Fed Trapped as Energy Shock Meets Sticky Inflation
March CPI data will test whether Powell can anchor expectations as geopolitical oil premium embeds in headline inflation and core refuses to budge.
March Jobs Beat Forces Fed Rate-Cut Rethink as Terminal Rate Debate Heats Up
178k payroll additions triple forecasts, cementing 'higher for longer' regime and triggering aggressive repricing across rate-sensitive assets.
Oil Shock Erases Fed Rate-Cut Narrative as Inflation Risk Climbs Toward 4%
Iran-related supply disruption triggers largest energy shock in history, forcing markets to reprice 2026 macro outlook as stagflationary headwinds intensify.